My mind is just blown at all of the Americans that think the economy is bad, and gas is expensive.I just don't get it. We are...
My mind is just blown at all of the Americans that think the economy is bad, and gas is expensive.
I just don't get it. We are the economic envy of the entire planet by a HUGE margin and our economy is just insanely good.
To top it off, I made more on my 401Ks last year than I did at my job and my side business, and neither is low paying.
I would say that most American's think the economy is bad because the top 1% make all the profit while they struggle to make ends meet on crappy wages. Half the US households don't have a 401k.
My mind is just blown at all of the Americans that think the economy is bad, and gas is expensive.I just don't get it. We are...
My mind is just blown at all of the Americans that think the economy is bad, and gas is expensive.
I just don't get it. We are the economic envy of the entire planet by a HUGE margin and our economy is just insanely good.
To top it off, I made more on my 401Ks last year than I did at my job and my side business, and neither is low paying.
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.
The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast majority of americans are living one paycheck away from homelessness, in constant fear of medical debt, with less purchasing power every week due to the financialzation of the economy, stock buy-backs and sheer unregulated greed.
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast...
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.
The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast majority of americans are living one paycheck away from homelessness, in constant fear of medical debt, with less purchasing power every week due to the financialzation of the economy, stock buy-backs and sheer unregulated greed.
Ymmv, of course.
The median income in the last ranked state (Mississippi) is higher than the median income for the entirety of the UK.
Your problem is lack of social programs, not lack of income. American's are obscenely rich, yet have ~15% poverty rate (from OECD data).
If you get an international perspective you'd realise how well off the majority of Americans are
The median income in the last ranked state (Mississippi) is higher than the median income for the entirety of the UK.Your problem is lack of social...
The median income in the last ranked state (Mississippi) is higher than the median income for the entirety of the UK.
Your problem is lack of social programs, not lack of income. American's are obscenely rich, yet have ~15% poverty rate (from OECD data).
If you get an international perspective you'd realise how well off the majority of Americans are
Manufacturers shouldn’t be saddled with carrying the burden of a social safety net though- that is a particularly American Problem, and it’s why this thread exists in the first place…
The American economy is a blind consumption machine based on hope and smoke and mirrors and the fantasy of infinite economic growth
The underpinnings of the economy are not sound- poor STEM education, horrible educational outcomes per dollar spent, 3rd world healthcare outcomes, historic attacks on family planning, zero affordable housing being built or subsidized, automobile and intermodal-shipping container-centric infrastructure… all Americans pay real social and economic costs for these failures, lost, unrealized gains, if you will, from the poor state of this nation’s infrastructure.
America, is not a serious place.
edit:
also, to be clear, i think More Bicycles could save us all 😉 ⚡️ 🚲
I think Trump's initial tariff talk was one of his "thinking out loud moments " that probably shouldn't have been said out loud, on camera, during...
I think Trump's initial tariff talk was one of his "thinking out loud moments " that probably shouldn't have been said out loud, on camera, during a nationally televised interview. Hopefully by now, someone on his team has pointed out 1) How tariffs work, 2) who pays them the tariffs, and 3) how much money they actually generate...
Is only personal-gain for this one-man-show. Outward talk of course is actionable change within current economic times, yet is going to prove a long-game for current leaders this Oaf wants to impress. This is a person who only speaks about himself - every time, all the time. A penny in his pocket is our 'good' to his blinded eye.
This long game w/ TV Stars, Vampire-Expert ex NFL players is meant to continue avoidance of continued regulations on the environment in order to open transport through the waters of Greenland. Absurd, yet this is what it is.
All for a dollar. An entirely Tranactional Relationship doomed to fail.
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast...
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.
The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast majority of americans are living one paycheck away from homelessness, in constant fear of medical debt, with less purchasing power every week due to the financialzation of the economy, stock buy-backs and sheer unregulated greed.
Ymmv, of course.
I'm okay with you having an opinion on the Bike Mechanic profession not paying enough. However, factually speaking we are living in golden economic times. I'd suggest a bike mechanic that needs more money, find employment that pays more, as that's a job of passion and discounted bike parts, not economic advancement. It's not just the stock market that has done insanely well (and it's due for a major correction and could easily drop 20+% in 2025). It's exceedingly low unemployment, its high wage growth, even inflation is very good compared to the rest of the 1st world.
And the next time someone says gas is expensive I swear I'm going to punch them in the face. It's absurdly cheap when adjusted for inflation, before even considering that vehicles are 2x more efficient. If you choose to live in a high tax state that taxes your fuel high, that's not high fuel, that's your elected officials. Gas is $2.19/ gallon in Austin right now.
That said, as much as I despise Trump (and I do, he's an Authoritarian felonious POS), there is one thing that he is absolutely correct on (his reasons might be more about racism than lower end wage earners): Unchecked illegal immigration has dramatically lowered wages for low skilled labor. So, in that regard, the political left is decidedly anti-worker/ anti-blue collar/ anti-poor/ anti-minority through their open border policies. Of course, it's also the reason you can buy so many things so cheaply.
When I was a child in the 1980s, lower economic status men and women, often of color, many convicted felons, had good paying prideful work doing landscaping, painting homes, roofing, janitors, maids, childcare, etc. They were often small business owners, paying taxes and hiring employees. These same people sit at home now and collect a welfare check because it pays better than competing against illegal immigrant labor that doesn't pay taxes.
I had a 7 figure semi-custom home built in 2022 through a major builder and my family and I would spend every Saturday checking on the progress of the build. I recall one Saturday we were in and there was a pregnant woman and children sheet rocking a million dollar plus home. How is any American ever going to compete with that and pay taxes, have auto insurance, health insurance and so on? It's not possible.
New construction would of course cost 30% more if employing legal Americans. But then again, there would be a lot more available housing if illegals are removed.
The USA consider to have an illegal immigrants problem because your citizenship and visa system is convoluted and takes an insane amount of time to get through. Canada have a similar issue of worker available for agriculture but instead of relying on undocumented temporary workers that can get exploited by their employers, Canada has a specific legal system in place that guarantee some minimal working conditions, rights and citizenship status so they can have access to services like any other Canadians and also pay income taxes.
i know it's a fine line between relevant discussion about economy and the bike industry in this forum thread and i'm always blown away by how civil everyone is here. i appreciate that! as it's starting to get a bit more general, we have an "off the bike" forum area if you want to talk general global policy, thoughts on immigration etc. - https://www.vitalmtb.com/forums/VitalMTB/Off-the-Bike,3
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency proceedings".
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any idea on if they are in trouble?
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any...
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any idea on if they are in trouble?
We've suspected Evil is in trouble for a while, as they haven't released a new bike in god knows how long.
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency...
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency proceedings".
More info here (in German, you can google-translate it):
At first I though you were talking about Haibike the bike company when I first saw the e-mail... Still, I did do a few purchases with them. On the other hand, lately, nobody gets close to Bike24, Bike-Discount and for some things r2-bike when it comes to German mailorder shops. TradeInn (BikInn arm) has good stock on RS suspension parts, but I'm not sure how Bike-Components still lives given their prices lately...
Curious if anyone has seen or heard anything about Ari (Fezzari). With the rebrand and having to clear old bikes out with the old name and still having pretty decent discount on new badged stuff. Also the new downhill bike.
Curious if anyone has seen or heard anything about Ari (Fezzari). With the rebrand and having to clear old bikes out with the old name and...
Curious if anyone has seen or heard anything about Ari (Fezzari). With the rebrand and having to clear old bikes out with the old name and still having pretty decent discount on new badged stuff. Also the new downhill bike.
Here's what sucks for a company right now.. Let's say Ari didn't get caught up in the covid ordering frenzy and inventory is where they are comfortable. They still have to discount product to avoid losing sales because so many other companies have dropped prices.
That being said, I haven't heard anything regarding their finances. I noticed a while back that the old Fezarri branded bikes didn't seem to have huge numbers available, but they had some really good deals if your size was available..
Yea, I like them as well. Clean, simple and seem to have good numbers for the price. They had a couple bikes test well at multiple media outlets before the re-brand and their new bikes look great.
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency...
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency proceedings".
In my humble opinion hibike was actually the best online shop in Germany few years ago with even better prices than bikediscount, checked it few months ago and the stock was already pretty limited and it already looked like something was wrong... sad to hear :/
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one...
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
Definitely agree on making some speculations at this point!
About your Atherton Bikes statement: I am able to go to checkout if I have chosen a fitting frame size. Maybe what you are experiencing is a US thing?
Regarding the rumor mill for 2025: Still heard that BMC will stop the Scor "project"
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one...
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
Definitely agree on making some speculations at this point! :)About your Atherton Bikes statement: I am able to go to checkout if I have chosen a...
Definitely agree on making some speculations at this point!
About your Atherton Bikes statement: I am able to go to checkout if I have chosen a fitting frame size. Maybe what you are experiencing is a US thing?
Regarding the rumor mill for 2025: Still heard that BMC will stop the Scor "project"
I know that when I ordered my A.170 they wanted to have a conversation first because of the myriad of options that they have. I normally would be super annoyed by this because I know exactly what I want and am quite capable of figuring out my own sizing but I'll give them credit in saying it was a worthwhile discussion in that the various builds that they list have several choices you can make within them, e.g. 180mm vs 170mm Fox 38, colors, etc. Yes, I could have handled it myself if they built it out on the site but I get the sense that they are pretty dynamic on that stuff and don't want to try to keep the website in synch with the options that they have. Their customer service along the way is exceptional with pictures of your build as it progresses and I think they are currently in a 16 week backlog so they seem to be doing it right. Speaking of which, I think that is also one of the reasons that they want to speak to you. I was told 12-14 weeks when I ordered which would have been correct had I not modified a couple of things along the way.
FWIW, I didn't expect to like that bike as much as I do. I cannot believe how well it pedals for a 40lb bike (fully built out with pedals, on bike tools, etc).
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one...
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
Having inventory with all of the sizes, build options, etc. is so 2019.
Having inventory with all of the sizes, build options, etc. is so 2019.
Build to order is the way forward.
Considering the number of companies that have struggled to move excess inventory (esp. complete bikes) over the past couple years, this could be true. Although perhaps with the caveat that build-to-order might become more commonplace only for high-end bikes -- I imagine lower-end bikes (e.g. $1500 hardtails) will probably still be offered as stock completes, since the people buying those aren't usually as concerned about specific component choices or frame features.
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any...
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any idea on if they are in trouble?
Kevin has gone through the mud for that brand, the Revolt fiasco should’ve been the nail in the coffin but he soldiered on, would be sad to see them close up shop now. I saw a little while ago that they let go of a bunch of people from hq. Not sure if it was only retail/ wrench type employees or what.
IMO they’ve sort of priced themselves out, they make a premium product to be sure but not many options on full builds, and the sorts of people laying out the sort of cash they want for their frames/ full builds are gonna have some specific parts requests… a $4000 frameset really limits your already limited market imo. But hey I’m just a dork on the internet.
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one...
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
Having inventory with all of the sizes, build options, etc. is so 2019.
Build to order is the way forward.
Long time lurker but joined just to contribute to this fantastic discussion (loved the podcast as well)
Whilst "Just in time" makes sense from a cashflow perspective it surely only really works if your whole supply chain is setup that way. Otherwise you're going to have a ton of forks, drivetrain etc in inventory anyway to fulfill the final builds.
Screenshot that one..
I would say that most American's think the economy is bad because the top 1% make all the profit while they struggle to make ends meet on crappy wages. Half the US households don't have a 401k.
Your local bike mechanic doesn’t make enough money to enter a bike race, let alone buy a bicycle.
The stock market isn’t the economy. The vast majority of americans are living one paycheck away from homelessness, in constant fear of medical debt, with less purchasing power every week due to the financialzation of the economy, stock buy-backs and sheer unregulated greed.
Ymmv, of course.
The median income in the last ranked state (Mississippi) is higher than the median income for the entirety of the UK.
Your problem is lack of social programs, not lack of income. American's are obscenely rich, yet have ~15% poverty rate (from OECD data).
If you get an international perspective you'd realise how well off the majority of Americans are
Manufacturers shouldn’t be saddled with carrying the burden of a social safety net though- that is a particularly American Problem, and it’s why this thread exists in the first place…
The American economy is a blind consumption machine based on hope and smoke and mirrors and the fantasy of infinite economic growth
The underpinnings of the economy are not sound- poor STEM education, horrible educational outcomes per dollar spent, 3rd world healthcare outcomes, historic attacks on family planning, zero affordable housing being built or subsidized, automobile and intermodal-shipping container-centric infrastructure… all Americans pay real social and economic costs for these failures, lost, unrealized gains, if you will, from the poor state of this nation’s infrastructure.
America, is not a serious place.
edit:
also, to be clear, i think More Bicycles could save us all 😉 ⚡️ 🚲
Is only personal-gain for this one-man-show. Outward talk of course is actionable change within current economic times, yet is going to prove a long-game for current leaders this Oaf wants to impress. This is a person who only speaks about himself - every time, all the time. A penny in his pocket is our 'good' to his blinded eye.
Tariff = Border/Immigration = Greenland/Panama = 'Chyyyyynaaaa(sic)' & Ruskie Merchant Vessel trade routes.
This long game w/ TV Stars, Vampire-Expert ex NFL players is meant to continue avoidance of continued regulations on the environment in order to open transport through the waters of Greenland. Absurd, yet this is what it is.
All for a dollar. An entirely Tranactional Relationship doomed to fail.
I'm okay with you having an opinion on the Bike Mechanic profession not paying enough. However, factually speaking we are living in golden economic times. I'd suggest a bike mechanic that needs more money, find employment that pays more, as that's a job of passion and discounted bike parts, not economic advancement. It's not just the stock market that has done insanely well (and it's due for a major correction and could easily drop 20+% in 2025). It's exceedingly low unemployment, its high wage growth, even inflation is very good compared to the rest of the 1st world.
And the next time someone says gas is expensive I swear I'm going to punch them in the face. It's absurdly cheap when adjusted for inflation, before even considering that vehicles are 2x more efficient. If you choose to live in a high tax state that taxes your fuel high, that's not high fuel, that's your elected officials. Gas is $2.19/ gallon in Austin right now.
That said, as much as I despise Trump (and I do, he's an Authoritarian felonious POS), there is one thing that he is absolutely correct on (his reasons might be more about racism than lower end wage earners): Unchecked illegal immigration has dramatically lowered wages for low skilled labor. So, in that regard, the political left is decidedly anti-worker/ anti-blue collar/ anti-poor/ anti-minority through their open border policies. Of course, it's also the reason you can buy so many things so cheaply.
When I was a child in the 1980s, lower economic status men and women, often of color, many convicted felons, had good paying prideful work doing landscaping, painting homes, roofing, janitors, maids, childcare, etc. They were often small business owners, paying taxes and hiring employees. These same people sit at home now and collect a welfare check because it pays better than competing against illegal immigrant labor that doesn't pay taxes.
I had a 7 figure semi-custom home built in 2022 through a major builder and my family and I would spend every Saturday checking on the progress of the build. I recall one Saturday we were in and there was a pregnant woman and children sheet rocking a million dollar plus home. How is any American ever going to compete with that and pay taxes, have auto insurance, health insurance and so on? It's not possible.
New construction would of course cost 30% more if employing legal Americans. But then again, there would be a lot more available housing if illegals are removed.
The USA consider to have an illegal immigrants problem because your citizenship and visa system is convoluted and takes an insane amount of time to get through. Canada have a similar issue of worker available for agriculture but instead of relying on undocumented temporary workers that can get exploited by their employers, Canada has a specific legal system in place that guarantee some minimal working conditions, rights and citizenship status so they can have access to services like any other Canadians and also pay income taxes.
i know it's a fine line between relevant discussion about economy and the bike industry in this forum thread and i'm always blown away by how civil everyone is here. i appreciate that! as it's starting to get a bit more general, we have an "off the bike" forum area if you want to talk general global policy, thoughts on immigration etc. - https://www.vitalmtb.com/forums/VitalMTB/Off-the-Bike,3
let's keep this one as bike-specific as possible.
Not sure if it was already mentioned, but after canceling an order I found out that German shop Hibike is "in the middle of an insolvency proceedings".
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any idea on if they are in trouble?
We've suspected Evil is in trouble for a while, as they haven't released a new bike in god knows how long.
More info here (in German, you can google-translate it):
https://www.mtb-news.de/news/insolvenzverwaltung-bei-hibike/
At first I though you were talking about Haibike the bike company when I first saw the e-mail... Still, I did do a few purchases with them. On the other hand, lately, nobody gets close to Bike24, Bike-Discount and for some things r2-bike when it comes to German mailorder shops. TradeInn (BikInn arm) has good stock on RS suspension parts, but I'm not sure how Bike-Components still lives given their prices lately...
Curious if anyone has seen or heard anything about Ari (Fezzari). With the rebrand and having to clear old bikes out with the old name and still having pretty decent discount on new badged stuff. Also the new downhill bike.
Here's what sucks for a company right now.. Let's say Ari didn't get caught up in the covid ordering frenzy and inventory is where they are comfortable. They still have to discount product to avoid losing sales because so many other companies have dropped prices.
That being said, I haven't heard anything regarding their finances. I noticed a while back that the old Fezarri branded bikes didn't seem to have huge numbers available, but they had some really good deals if your size was available..
Ari's bikes are looking surpringly good lately.
this comment was written out of Lindon, Utah
Nope.
Just watching the market and the Ari bikes look pretty good is all.
Even before the rebranding i thought they were making big improvements with some of the bikes. And the new models are hitting the marks, IMO.
Yea, I like them as well. Clean, simple and seem to have good numbers for the price. They had a couple bikes test well at multiple media outlets before the re-brand and their new bikes look great.
In my humble opinion hibike was actually the best online shop in Germany few years ago with even better prices than bikediscount, checked it few months ago and the stock was already pretty limited and it already looked like something was wrong... sad to hear :/
We should probably do a few predictions posts, eh? I've got a number of thoughts going into the new year, and will synthesize them into one post, but I do think we're going to see more companies pull the plug this year.
I'll go out on a limb and say Atherton Bikes may be one of those stragglers who calls it quits. I have literally no data on this, so please take this with a huge grain of salt, but when I was poking around their website I realized I can't just "buy it now" with respect to a frame or bike. You need to have a conversation with someone to put your order in. While this may work well for a small batch frame company (frameworks or Reeb for instance), Atherton employees more people, has real investors, has real capex on the manufacturing side and has real costs (I think) to run the business. This model coupled with their cost structure has to be challenging in an environment like we are currently in. At some point someone who is floating the operation has to go "okay, enough".
Anyway, this is my hare brained one off speculative prediction for the year with low confidence completely based on intuition. I'll make a less flippent list of things I think may happen this year in a bit - but figured I'd throw this one out there and see if anyone else has any thoughts...
Definitely agree on making some speculations at this point!
About your Atherton Bikes statement: I am able to go to checkout if I have chosen a fitting frame size. Maybe what you are experiencing is a US thing?
Regarding the rumor mill for 2025: Still heard that BMC will stop the Scor "project"
Have they posted S series bike for sale yet? Those might be the bread and butter...
I know that when I ordered my A.170 they wanted to have a conversation first because of the myriad of options that they have. I normally would be super annoyed by this because I know exactly what I want and am quite capable of figuring out my own sizing but I'll give them credit in saying it was a worthwhile discussion in that the various builds that they list have several choices you can make within them, e.g. 180mm vs 170mm Fox 38, colors, etc. Yes, I could have handled it myself if they built it out on the site but I get the sense that they are pretty dynamic on that stuff and don't want to try to keep the website in synch with the options that they have. Their customer service along the way is exceptional with pictures of your build as it progresses and I think they are currently in a 16 week backlog so they seem to be doing it right. Speaking of which, I think that is also one of the reasons that they want to speak to you. I was told 12-14 weeks when I ordered which would have been correct had I not modified a couple of things along the way.
FWIW, I didn't expect to like that bike as much as I do. I cannot believe how well it pedals for a 40lb bike (fully built out with pedals, on bike tools, etc).
Having inventory with all of the sizes, build options, etc. is so 2019.
Build to order is the way forward.
Considering the number of companies that have struggled to move excess inventory (esp. complete bikes) over the past couple years, this could be true. Although perhaps with the caveat that build-to-order might become more commonplace only for high-end bikes -- I imagine lower-end bikes (e.g. $1500 hardtails) will probably still be offered as stock completes, since the people buying those aren't usually as concerned about specific component choices or frame features.
Kevin has gone through the mud for that brand, the Revolt fiasco should’ve been the nail in the coffin but he soldiered on, would be sad to see them close up shop now. I saw a little while ago that they let go of a bunch of people from hq. Not sure if it was only retail/ wrench type employees or what.
IMO they’ve sort of priced themselves out, they make a premium product to be sure but not many options on full builds, and the sorts of people laying out the sort of cash they want for their frames/ full builds are gonna have some specific parts requests… a $4000 frameset really limits your already limited market imo. But hey I’m just a dork on the internet.
Long time lurker but joined just to contribute to this fantastic discussion (loved the podcast as well)
Whilst "Just in time" makes sense from a cashflow perspective it surely only really works if your whole supply chain is setup that way. Otherwise you're going to have a ton of forks, drivetrain etc in inventory anyway to fulfill the final builds.
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