Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

SteveClimber
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13 hours ago

Wow.

Another one starts circling the drain. 

I presume Rocky will be able to trade out of it, but RIP to bike development 

Regarding bike development... Are the 2 to 3 year cycles long enough? We had a lot of companies that used to do 2 year cycles but...

Regarding bike development... Are the 2 to 3 year cycles long enough? We had a lot of companies that used to do 2 year cycles but switched to 3 years claiming rushed products due to the a 2 year crunch..  Personally, I think the companies wanted more time to get the money back on expensive carbon molds. Maybe 4 years and there will always be some new components to help refresh a bike in that time.

Look at cars where the the product cycles are typically 6 years with a mid cycle update..

 

I guess I'm just thinking out loud..

I've got no idea as I don't work in the industry and specifically haven't seen the accounts for the companies. 

But arm chair, id say 3 years would be fine now, as development has started to slow a lot compared to the 2016-2020 heyday of long drops, longer reacher much slacker every single year. 

I was specifically mentioning development as that would be one of the first items to get cost cutting during this restructure. 

2
12 hours ago
sspomer wrote:
this screenshot from a FB group was passed on to me - re: Rocky

this screenshot from a FB group was passed on to me - re: Rocky

fb

Just a few weeks ago Rocky laid off a ton of staff, mostly marketing, tech support, sales types so far

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BGoldstone
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12 hours ago Edited Date/Time 12 hours ago

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2024/12/19/rocky-mountain-files-bankruptcy-protection


Rocky Mountain announced plans to restructure its finances to avoid declaring bankruptcy but will continue operating normally.

 

Filing for a Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) ensures Rocky Mountain will avoid a business interruption "as much as possible," the brand said. The application with the Superior Court of Quebec Commercial Division offers protection under the CCAA.

"Despite strong demand for its bikes during the pandemic, the company struggled to secure supplies due to shortages and rising costs," according to Rocky Mountain. "Once the pandemic was over, the company had to contend with a sharp drop in selling prices."

Rocky Mountain said as margins tightened, financial pressure increased, leading to Thursday's decision "to become a resilient and successful long-term business."

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kperras
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11 hours ago
Regarding bike development... Are the 2 to 3 year cycles long enough? We had a lot of companies that used to do 2 year cycles but...

Regarding bike development... Are the 2 to 3 year cycles long enough? We had a lot of companies that used to do 2 year cycles but switched to 3 years claiming rushed products due to the a 2 year crunch..  Personally, I think the companies wanted more time to get the money back on expensive carbon molds. Maybe 4 years and there will always be some new components to help refresh a bike in that time.

Look at cars where the the product cycles are typically 6 years with a mid cycle update..

 

I guess I'm just thinking out loud..

It takes over 2 years to bring a frame to market. That's with perfect timing that leaves little buffer for setbacks. Of course you can take short cuts and do it quicker, say 18 months but that's skipping out on critical areas of the development phase. Ideally the industry moves to a 4 year cycle to slow down the pace of things. The race to first and shortening timeliness is one of the reasons why the bike industry is in the place that it is today.

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sprungmass
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8 hours ago

Just read on news outlets that Rocky Mountain filed for bankruptcy protection. Hope things work out for them in the future. 

6 hours ago
sprungmass wrote:

Just read on news outlets that Rocky Mountain filed for bankruptcy protection. Hope things work out for them in the future. 

Was it the five posts above you?

4
6 hours ago
sprungmass wrote:

Just read on news outlets that Rocky Mountain filed for bankruptcy protection. Hope things work out for them in the future. 

Was it the five posts above you?

Just read on the news outlets that 6 different posts above me are reporting Rocky Mountain has filed for bankruptcy protection. I hope things continue to be posted above and below me.

9
6 hours ago
sprungmass wrote:

Just read on news outlets that Rocky Mountain filed for bankruptcy protection. Hope things work out for them in the future. 

Was it the five posts above you?

Just read on the news outlets that 6 different posts above me are reporting Rocky Mountain has filed for bankruptcy protection. I hope things continue to...

Just read on the news outlets that 6 different posts above me are reporting Rocky Mountain has filed for bankruptcy protection. I hope things continue to be posted above and below me.

Did you'll hear about Rocky Mountain, eh?

 

Hopefully they can pull through.. Would suck to lose another iconic brand..

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FullSend
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7 minutes ago
Eoin wrote:
Anyone know how much of a cash safety net Canyon are sitting on, and what is their distribution of sales in terms of road vs mtb?Because...

Anyone know how much of a cash safety net Canyon are sitting on, and what is their distribution of sales in terms of road vs mtb?

Because they must be getting absolutely hammered on the ebike battery recall. They havn't been selling any full power ebikes for weeks, they are offering hundreds of euros in compensation to spectral:on and torque:on riders who have been told not to ride their bikes for the next few months. I'm sure they are getting tons of requests for refunds. This will massively damage their reputation, but maybe they make enough from the road side, which probably has more volume and higher margins anyway.

To put it blunt: You won't get an answer from anyone here that isn't largely based on speculation.

That being said, I'd wager to guess that they're sitting on a comfortably large stack of cash. They must have easily had the largest market share in cycling here in Germany during the pandemic outdoor sports boom. The fact that they attracted the attention of venture capital and other forms of private equity probably documents their profitability.

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