Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

ARonBurgundy
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11/26/2024 11:44am
TEAMROBOT wrote:

11000!!! Given away!!! That might make a little impact on the Euro used e-MTB market for a while, you think?

DubC wrote:
At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of...

At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of bikes and P&A for roughly the cost of just shipping those goods. The storage costs were piling up and at current sell rates, they were amounting to 10+ years of inventory on hand. It was getting to the point that destroying the goods was a more financially feasible option than continuing to store them and wait for them to slowly sell for the few years those parts would still be relevant. I wonder if this "gifting" of bikes was partially born from them having so many that they didnt know what to do with them. 

I heard similar rumblings as well. Maybe these being e-bikes complicated the fuck it/crush it way out? Like the disposal costs for the e-waste made in unfeasible. 

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jonkranked
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11/26/2024 12:06pm
I heard similar rumblings as well. Maybe these being e-bikes complicated the fuck it/crush it way out? Like the disposal costs for the e-waste made in...

I heard similar rumblings as well. Maybe these being e-bikes complicated the fuck it/crush it way out? Like the disposal costs for the e-waste made in unfeasible. 

also would make some sense considering shipping costs for the batteries.

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metadave
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11/26/2024 1:10pm

So in the past we're talked more about smaller to mid sized companies shutting down, the biggest being Kona and the CRC brands and rumors of a few others, but a lot of the small and midsize companies that had lower inventory and were quicker to move on getting that Inventory out, while maybe not all out of the water yet, seem to have stablized stock wise from what I've seen and are being careful moving forward. But now will we see the bigger guys, who had capital and sat on stuff longer thinking it would move, but have now spent that capital on storage, interest and new product going to be the ones we see start hitting the deck harder?

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TEAMROBOT
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11/27/2024 9:39am
metadave wrote:
So in the past we're talked more about smaller to mid sized companies shutting down, the biggest being Kona and the CRC brands and rumors of...

So in the past we're talked more about smaller to mid sized companies shutting down, the biggest being Kona and the CRC brands and rumors of a few others, but a lot of the small and midsize companies that had lower inventory and were quicker to move on getting that Inventory out, while maybe not all out of the water yet, seem to have stablized stock wise from what I've seen and are being careful moving forward. But now will we see the bigger guys, who had capital and sat on stuff longer thinking it would move, but have now spent that capital on storage, interest and new product going to be the ones we see start hitting the deck harder?

Interesting point, especially because in that Moeller podcast he said Trek and Giant owe Shimano a ton of $$$. It's wild out here.

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kperras
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11/27/2024 1:18pm

IIRC KTM MTB is a separate company with a licensing agreement? I'm not sure where the E-MTB portfolio lands though, as there are KTM e-bikes as well as Husqvarna and GasGas e-bikes, the latter 2 maybe being part of the powersports / Pierrer group. 

Reddit (not an authoritative source of course) mentions this which lines up with my assumption:
KTM motorcycles and KTM bicycles are not the same. A different bike manufacturer bought the rights to the name KTM for bicycles. However the brands Husqvarna, GasGas and Felt do belong to KTM the motorcycle company. KTM bicycles is its own company that just uses the name KTM.

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Jotegr
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11/27/2024 1:29pm Edited Date/Time 11/27/2024 3:31pm
kperras wrote:
IIRC KTM MTB is a separate company with a licensing agreement? I'm not sure where the E-MTB portfolio lands though, as there are KTM e-bikes as...

IIRC KTM MTB is a separate company with a licensing agreement? I'm not sure where the E-MTB portfolio lands though, as there are KTM e-bikes as well as Husqvarna and GasGas e-bikes, the latter 2 maybe being part of the powersports / Pierrer group. 

Reddit (not an authoritative source of course) mentions this which lines up with my assumption:
KTM motorcycles and KTM bicycles are not the same. A different bike manufacturer bought the rights to the name KTM for bicycles. However the brands Husqvarna, GasGas and Felt do belong to KTM the motorcycle company. KTM bicycles is its own company that just uses the name KTM.

Ken it's wild that KTM thought it was better to own the brand Felt rather than start making bikes under their own name, which they licensed to somebody else. 

 

The German article above specifically mentions that approximately half were Husqvarna branded e-bikes beginning in 2023, so it might still track. 

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metadave
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11/27/2024 1:34pm Edited Date/Time 11/27/2024 1:34pm
kperras wrote:
IIRC KTM MTB is a separate company with a licensing agreement? I'm not sure where the E-MTB portfolio lands though, as there are KTM e-bikes as...

IIRC KTM MTB is a separate company with a licensing agreement? I'm not sure where the E-MTB portfolio lands though, as there are KTM e-bikes as well as Husqvarna and GasGas e-bikes, the latter 2 maybe being part of the powersports / Pierrer group. 

Reddit (not an authoritative source of course) mentions this which lines up with my assumption:
KTM motorcycles and KTM bicycles are not the same. A different bike manufacturer bought the rights to the name KTM for bicycles. However the brands Husqvarna, GasGas and Felt do belong to KTM the motorcycle company. KTM bicycles is its own company that just uses the name KTM.

KTM Bicycles seems to be pushing this fact they are a separate company pretty hard on their website right now to try and separate the two. Looking into it a bit deeper, Husqvarna moto/ebikes and KTM moto seem to be under the "Peirer Mobility AG" umbrella having the issues, who gave away the Husky e-bikes to their employee's and KTM Bicycles is separate as "KTM Fahrrad GmbH"

https://www.ktm-bikes.at/clarification

That would be very confusing for a consumer but interesting to see them push away from the clearly sinking cousin. 

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jeff.brines
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11/27/2024 3:14pm

Lots of thoughts to share RE: Pierer Mobility AG (KTM), but I'm a bit pinched on time. I'll try and post something bigger later. If I got serious and had a podcast this would certainly be a whole episode. 

Few things...

Where to get information:  If you want to follow along from the "horse's mouth" always start with Pierer Mobility's IR page - https://www.pierermobility.com/en/newsroom  - most everything outside of this is an opinion on this, a CGPT reread of this or some other basterdization of the real press release. 

What this means: Its too early and I don't know European Chapter 11 Bankruptcy Proceedings (which is what this is) but in effect this looks like a way they can renegotiate with their creditors, write stuff off, lay off people and refocus. I'll try and spend some time understanding the differenes between chpt 11 and what this is, but from what I know its a bit faster method of getting the company "realigned toward a sustainable/durable future" than Chapter 11 proceedings here in the US. 

Not that it matters, but this is unfortunately the result of everything we've been talking about in this thread plus the addition of crazy amounts of leverage and "all the hype of e-bikes". When you take these ingredients, add in a healthy dose of softening consumer sentiment - this is what you get. 

E-Bikes: As I think I posted earlier (or maybe it was vitalmx) they farmed out the licensing of the KTM line of e-bikes a long time ago. The e-bikes they do "sell" includes GasGas and Husqvarna, and they suck. I do wonder if we could all try and get our hands on one of those bikes for pennies on the dollar. I'd happily pay $1K for one! Who wants to go on a scavenger hunt?! 

I posted this awhile back and it still holds water. https://jeffbrines.com/2024/10/25/cfo-asleep-at-the-wheel-the-failings-… I've learned a little more from then to now, and would make some adjustments, but ultimately they need to make some huge changes. I know this is super cringe but I did send the CEO a connection request on the dumpster fire known as LinkedIn and offered my help. I'd be cheap and would kill to be a part of helping make KTM Great Again. LOL.

 

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sethimus
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11/28/2024 2:20pm

ffs, too hard to look it up on wikipedia?

KTM after 1991

In 1991, the company was split into four new entities: KTM Sportmotorcycle GmbH (motorcycles division), KTM Fahrrad GmbH (bicycles division), KTM Kühler GmbH (radiators division) and KTM Werkzeugbau GmbH (tooling division).

nobody licensed anything to nobody

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jeff.brines
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11/28/2024 5:08pm
sethimus wrote:
ffs, too hard to look it up on wikipedia?KTM after 1991In 1991, the company was split into four new entities: KTM Sportmotorcycle GmbH (motorcycles...

ffs, too hard to look it up on wikipedia?

KTM after 1991

In 1991, the company was split into four new entities: KTM Sportmotorcycle GmbH (motorcycles division), KTM Fahrrad GmbH (bicycles division), KTM Kühler GmbH (radiators division) and KTM Werkzeugbau GmbH (tooling division).

nobody licensed anything to nobody

Good point! However it’s also completely immaterial considering the context of what we are discussing. The big point here is KTM bicycles and e bikes have no connection to Pierer Mobility. 

We are going to make lots of these kinds of mistakes in this thread. It’s a fun discussion with lots of painting with broad strokes and running a little loose. I don’t have time to triple check every source I use. 

That said I’m always happy to have more eyeballs jump in to steer toward truth and am happy to say “whoops I was wrong” (which I am here!)


Cheers

 

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Jotegr
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12/2/2024 11:26am

Honestly 10% off models that following product cycles of 10 years ago shouldn't yet exist in the public eye is pretty big too. 

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Suns_PSD
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12/4/2024 10:02am Edited Date/Time 12/4/2024 10:04am
TEAMROBOT wrote:

11000!!! Given away!!! That might make a little impact on the Euro used e-MTB market for a while, you think?

DubC wrote:
At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of...

At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of bikes and P&A for roughly the cost of just shipping those goods. The storage costs were piling up and at current sell rates, they were amounting to 10+ years of inventory on hand. It was getting to the point that destroying the goods was a more financially feasible option than continuing to store them and wait for them to slowly sell for the few years those parts would still be relevant. I wonder if this "gifting" of bikes was partially born from them having so many that they didnt know what to do with them. 

They could offer free flooring and incredibly low costs to dealers all over the world for these bikes and get them out of their storage places.

I'm sure if the average motorcycle dealer could get free inventory, and a cost of $1.5K for an e-bike payable once it was sold, they would have a million takers.

Once some were sold, they could offer a larger discount to have the dealer pay up front for a container. 

Also, are the utilizing Alibaba, e-bay, Amazon to liquidate? X-mas is coming up!

ARonBurgundy
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12/4/2024 1:45pm
TEAMROBOT wrote:

11000!!! Given away!!! That might make a little impact on the Euro used e-MTB market for a while, you think?

DubC wrote:
At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of...

At sea otter, the owner of a big german distribution company said there was chatter about some of the bigger brands shopping around container loads of bikes and P&A for roughly the cost of just shipping those goods. The storage costs were piling up and at current sell rates, they were amounting to 10+ years of inventory on hand. It was getting to the point that destroying the goods was a more financially feasible option than continuing to store them and wait for them to slowly sell for the few years those parts would still be relevant. I wonder if this "gifting" of bikes was partially born from them having so many that they didnt know what to do with them. 

Suns_PSD wrote:
They could offer free flooring and incredibly low costs to dealers all over the world for these bikes and get them out of their storage places.I'm...

They could offer free flooring and incredibly low costs to dealers all over the world for these bikes and get them out of their storage places.

I'm sure if the average motorcycle dealer could get free inventory, and a cost of $1.5K for an e-bike payable once it was sold, they would have a million takers.

Once some were sold, they could offer a larger discount to have the dealer pay up front for a container. 

Also, are the utilizing Alibaba, e-bay, Amazon to liquidate? X-mas is coming up!

I dunno. Motorcycle dealers are having a hard enough time selling motorcycles right now. 

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boozed
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12/7/2024 5:19pm

The Craftworks website has gone off the air, which I think might end my hope for a new generation of ENR

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jofish
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1 hour ago
Good point! However it’s also completely immaterial considering the context of what we are discussing. The big point here is KTM bicycles and e bikes have...

Good point! However it’s also completely immaterial considering the context of what we are discussing. The big point here is KTM bicycles and e bikes have no connection to Pierer Mobility. 

We are going to make lots of these kinds of mistakes in this thread. It’s a fun discussion with lots of painting with broad strokes and running a little loose. I don’t have time to triple check every source I use. 

That said I’m always happy to have more eyeballs jump in to steer toward truth and am happy to say “whoops I was wrong” (which I am here!)


Cheers

 

Don’t beat yourself up. If KTM had a penny for every time someone made this mistake they wouldn’t be in so much trouble. 

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