Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

1/12/2025 10:39am
Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating...

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating a lot of the team's $400K budget. I do know in the Vital pod with neko he was on record saying (this is a direct quote) "pretty much uh WD40 has a line of bike products and that's where our budget comes from" 

Neko is incredibly transparent about how Frameworks the company (and team) works. One of a gagillion reasons I love the dude.

Anyway, this wasn't a point of speculation from me, this was something I know Neko talked directly about. If I got any detail wrong, I'm happy to correct it, but I don't think I did. 

Coming off of supercross weekend, I found this "logo size" commentary kinda fun and I make the similar observations you all would. But, I can tell ya this without naming names-but, I have seen scenarios where a certain moto rig/jerseys have all kinds of brand logos, in the industry, outside the industry and one would think these are high dollar deals-some perhaps, but I know for a fact a few logos don't pay a penny, some logos are put on there in hopes they come on BIG in the future as well-which is nuts-but it happens. Point of the post is, don't always assume big logo or any logo means there is a cash infusion. 

3
1
1/12/2025 10:44am
Jotegr wrote:

Aight, well now EVERYBODY is talking about WAO going to I9 so it might as well get posted here. Sad for us in many ways. 

This is a bummer and not for any I9 neg vibes, they are awesome, it would be a bummer to see WAO falter-unless this creates some ultra awesome super partnership. Wishing the best to both brands.

1
1/12/2025 11:44am

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

2
1/12/2025 12:12pm
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Especially if the "25% tariff on everything from Canada" from orange man comes into play.

6
1/12/2025 12:26pm

Especially if the "25% tariff on everything from Canada" from orange man comes into play.

If that great example of a bad idea happens, a strategic partnership with I9 could be quite beneficial..

3
sspomer
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1/13/2025 8:02am

If y'all keep this up Spomer's gonna start a new thread for Industry Nine reviews. Back on topic, please?

done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO (or any other brand).

4
Jotegr
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1/13/2025 8:30am Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 8:53am
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

6
DIGRIDEPARTY
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1/13/2025 8:30am
Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40...

Just cause wd40 is the biggest company on nekos jerseys doesn’t mean they are the biggest sponsor.  It does not seem the bike division of wd40 has some incredible marketing budget allocated towards it in any way at all.  

My (not so) hot take of the year is that the bike race scene will remain largely self funded.  With the one routine exception being riders with energy drink headgear.

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating...

I'm sure someone else can find the podcast or clip, but I'm 99.9% sure Neko gave specifics about the WD-40 deal and how WD was floating a lot of the team's $400K budget. I do know in the Vital pod with neko he was on record saying (this is a direct quote) "pretty much uh WD40 has a line of bike products and that's where our budget comes from" 

Neko is incredibly transparent about how Frameworks the company (and team) works. One of a gagillion reasons I love the dude.

Anyway, this wasn't a point of speculation from me, this was something I know Neko talked directly about. If I got any detail wrong, I'm happy to correct it, but I don't think I did. 

WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is listed in order on all his posts. 2025 5 dev is the main sponsor. Last year they were the top as well but not title position. They make him custom parts so not sure if it's a money deal or free machining. Most likely he gets moderate amounts of money for 20 sponsors vs 1 big whale or funding sponsor. 

1
PisgahGnar
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1/13/2025 8:46am
WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is...

WD-40 Has logo'd shuttle trucks at Rock Creek. They aren't funding Frameworks. Neko got some money from Loctite to glue a frame. His sponsor rank is listed in order on all his posts. 2025 5 dev is the main sponsor. Last year they were the top as well but not title position. They make him custom parts so not sure if it's a money deal or free machining. Most likely he gets moderate amounts of money for 20 sponsors vs 1 big whale or funding sponsor. 

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

2
Shinook
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1/13/2025 8:56am

So I guess that WAO news explains why we haven't seen any more progress on WAO releasing the handlebars they debuted at Sea Otter last year? 

1
DIGRIDEPARTY
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1/13/2025 9:02am
PisgahGnar wrote:

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

Oh yeah There's wd-40 bike washes. I swore there was a truck too. Blue logos get confusing. Either way. WD-40 isn't a top frameworks sponsor. 

1
dolface
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1/13/2025 9:36am
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

Weren't the molds also temp/not full production molds or am getting WAO mixed up w/ Crestline?

jeff.brines
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1/13/2025 12:46pm Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 12:47pm
PisgahGnar wrote:

The shuttle trucks are Michelin. 

Oh yeah There's wd-40 bike washes. I swore there was a truck too. Blue logos get confusing. Either way. WD-40 isn't a top frameworks sponsor. 

I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version of Neko being interviewed by an AI version of Spomer in this video? Link to video. This conversation is  a discussion relevant to "semi-known" 2024 team financials. For clarity, this thread isn’t focused on team rumors—there's a separate thread for that. Wink

The intent of discussing team sponsorship and dynamics here is to highlight the significant costs involved in running a team. For smaller companies, the ROI might not make sense unless they can successfully collaborate with multiple sponsors, or have a big boy sponsor like WD step up. This approach minimizes the financial burden on the bike frame company, limiting their contribution primarily to providing product (which is the case here). Obviously, we could have a whole separate thread as to the ins and outs of how it all works, and how good of an investment it really is, but I'm not so interested in that broadly speaking atm. 

 

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sethimus
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1/13/2025 1:12pm

If y'all keep this up Spomer's gonna start a new thread for Industry Nine reviews. Back on topic, please?

sspomer wrote:
done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO...

done (sort of). i've nuked all the specific product review posts. they belong here. feel free to start your own forum topic about I9 or WAO (or any other brand).

instead of nuking i would prefer you'd transfer offtopic posts to a new topic so the origin of the discussion remains and can continue

2
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metadave
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1/13/2025 9:01pm Edited Date/Time 1/13/2025 9:01pm
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the frames weren't profitable, they were going to stop making them and focus on other things, but learned a lot from making it. They only made money when they sold rolling chassis and I think I also saw they'd offered up the arrival design to anyone willing to make it, but I may be wrong on that. 

7
dolface
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1 day ago
I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

metadave wrote:
Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the...

Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the frames weren't profitable, they were going to stop making them and focus on other things, but learned a lot from making it. They only made money when they sold rolling chassis and I think I also saw they'd offered up the arrival design to anyone willing to make it, but I may be wrong on that. 

2
amaranth
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1 day ago

Listened when it came out, listened to it again just now. Dustin is very open on the podcast on how some of the stuff worked (and didn't work). I really hope WAO stays in business, there's only 3 carbon wheel manufacturers that actually mold their carbon fiber in NA that I know of - Enve/F&B/WAO, and WAO is by far the most affordable. 

2
DIGRIDEPARTY
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I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version...

I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version of Neko being interviewed by an AI version of Spomer in this video? Link to video. This conversation is  a discussion relevant to "semi-known" 2024 team financials. For clarity, this thread isn’t focused on team rumors—there's a separate thread for that. Wink

The intent of discussing team sponsorship and dynamics here is to highlight the significant costs involved in running a team. For smaller companies, the ROI might not make sense unless they can successfully collaborate with multiple sponsors, or have a big boy sponsor like WD step up. This approach minimizes the financial burden on the bike frame company, limiting their contribution primarily to providing product (which is the case here). Obviously, we could have a whole separate thread as to the ins and outs of how it all works, and how good of an investment it really is, but I'm not so interested in that broadly speaking atm. 

 

WD isn't the main sponsor. WD may actually shut down their bike division. It doesn't sell at all. They are a family owned business that doesn't need to spend money in biking. Only reason they have the bike products is to get youth brand exposure but so far if you look at their social media reach and product placement, the only thing they have in the positive is Frameworks. Hopefully one of the owners of WD really likes DH racing because i can easily see them pulling the plug on that division if they don't sell anything and just spend on race teams.

7
jeff.brines
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1 day ago
I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version...

I know I'm going to sound like a dick, and I don't mean to, but can we stop the thread derailment? Was this an AI version of Neko being interviewed by an AI version of Spomer in this video? Link to video. This conversation is  a discussion relevant to "semi-known" 2024 team financials. For clarity, this thread isn’t focused on team rumors—there's a separate thread for that. Wink

The intent of discussing team sponsorship and dynamics here is to highlight the significant costs involved in running a team. For smaller companies, the ROI might not make sense unless they can successfully collaborate with multiple sponsors, or have a big boy sponsor like WD step up. This approach minimizes the financial burden on the bike frame company, limiting their contribution primarily to providing product (which is the case here). Obviously, we could have a whole separate thread as to the ins and outs of how it all works, and how good of an investment it really is, but I'm not so interested in that broadly speaking atm. 

 

WD isn't the main sponsor. WD may actually shut down their bike division. It doesn't sell at all. They are a family owned business that doesn't...

WD isn't the main sponsor. WD may actually shut down their bike division. It doesn't sell at all. They are a family owned business that doesn't need to spend money in biking. Only reason they have the bike products is to get youth brand exposure but so far if you look at their social media reach and product placement, the only thing they have in the positive is Frameworks. Hopefully one of the owners of WD really likes DH racing because i can easily see them pulling the plug on that division if they don't sell anything and just spend on race teams.

Ah yes, the BlackRock Family Owned Business (TM). There is a big giant internet out there for you to go troll. Please leave this little thread alone, if you don't mind. 

Screenshot 2025-01-14 at 9.26.16%E2%80%AFAM

 

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DIGRIDEPARTY
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Ah yes, the BlackRock Family Owned Business (TM). There is a big giant internet out there for you to go troll. Please leave this little thread...

Ah yes, the BlackRock Family Owned Business (TM). There is a big giant internet out there for you to go troll. Please leave this little thread alone, if you don't mind. 

Screenshot 2025-01-14 at 9.26.16%E2%80%AFAM

 

Not trolling. WD-40 isn't doing well in bike. Go to any store. Do you see their product placement? They also aren't the main FW sponsor. Not sure why this pisses you off. 

WD-40's bike division could be shut down. It's not a main part of their portfolio. 

Do I need to search the web for an "avalanche" of evidence to convince you otherwise. Smile

 

7
Jotegr
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I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they...

I was thinking this morning that WAO is in a bit of a unique situation.. Since all of the frame production was in house and they made their tooling, shutting it down while everyone else is flooding the market with discounted products makes alot of sense. They don't owe someone else money for making frames. Let things stabilize and go from there. Why make frames to have to sell them at an unsubstanable price? 

As for WAO selling to I9, it would kinda fit what Dustin has done in the past.. Maybe he feels it's time for him to move on to something new?

Jotegr wrote:
So I think the frames are done forever. The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top...

So I think the frames are done forever. 

The KBRA (local public trail association to WAO) posted a raffle recently, where a large Arrival is the top prize. They said directly in the listing that WAO spun up the tooling for the very last time for the prize bike and that the raffle bike will be the last arrival made ever. So yeah. 

WAO%2BArrival 1

 

metadave wrote:
Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the...

Just to reference a very good vital podcast ep, Spomers podcast with WAO last year? is worth a listen. In it, Dustin straight up said the frames weren't profitable, they were going to stop making them and focus on other things, but learned a lot from making it. They only made money when they sold rolling chassis and I think I also saw they'd offered up the arrival design to anyone willing to make it, but I may be wrong on that. 

And yet people continued to query and opine about the future of WAO's bike manufacturing in the year+ since that podcast. I suppose the KBRA post is... confirmation? 

sweaman22
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1 day ago

I think it's confirmation that they aren't making any more frames. I'd still consider I9 a strong rumour at this point...

1
Mwood
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17 hours ago

Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/

 

It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials, but they got to be doing well if they are offering a 100k prize purse. Can anyone read into their reporting and tell us how good/bad they are doing? 

2
Robbie420
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17 hours ago Edited Date/Time 17 hours ago
Mwood wrote:
Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/ It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials...

Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/

 

It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials, but they got to be doing well if they are offering a 100k prize purse. Can anyone read into their reporting and tell us how good/bad they are doing? 

Gates is massive to say the least. They make different belts for bikes, snowmobiles, cars, trucks , heavy equipment , industrial fans and drive motors. They are one of the biggest names in the industry. 

4
17 hours ago

I'd venture to guess Gates may have taken a bit of a hit in some areas with various industries adjusting production due to the economy, but overall I'd say they are probably doing ok..

2
jeff.brines
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16 hours ago Edited Date/Time 16 hours ago
Mwood wrote:
Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/ It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials...

Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/

 

It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials, but they got to be doing well if they are offering a 100k prize purse. Can anyone read into their reporting and tell us how good/bad they are doing? 

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely spend far more on their company Christmas party than on the belt drive bounty for bikes. Put another way, $100K isn't even a rounding error for a company of that scale, its almost insignificant. 

Regardless of size, from my perspective, it's an interesting bet. On one hand, I’m all for incentivizing brands to adopt belt-driven gearboxes. Personally, I’m very interested in designing bikes that eliminate the conventional drivetrain altogether, even with a weight penalty. However, everyone I know who has used Pinion-like technologies says the same thing: for most riding, a derailleur is superior—better shifting under load, smoother operation, greater efficiency, lighter and cheaper. 

Part of me thinks Gates might be pursuing this as a broader advertising strategy to build brand equity. Similar to what WD-40 might be doing, this could be an attempt to improve the brand's perception among a higher-income, more affluent demographic. That approach could be worthwhile even if there’s no direct correlation between the investment and measurable outcomes.

That said, I don’t think this is purely an advertising play. It seems more intentional. I noticed they recently had a job posting up for a role that involved strategizing and selling into the bicycle, powersports, and ‘big boy toy’ markets. Given Gates’ presence in the CTV market (snowmobiles, side-by-sides, etc.), it could be a great fit for someone in this forum, if the posting is still open. Digressions aside, I really wish we'd see more investment into making a gearbox that really does compete side by side with current drivetrains, but that may be like saying "I want an electric airplane that I can fly coast to coast on". It sounds great, but basically violates our current understanding of engineering, material science and battery technology. Its unicornware. 

 

11
Primoz
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16 hours ago

Gearbox in a casing is a great idea as it's clean, but the casing will invariably be heavy. You need to support the moving parts with a fairly strong construction. With a classic drivetrain said construction holding the parts in place also holds the rear wheel in place and enables you to ride the bike at all (i.e. it's the frame). That's problem number the one. Efficiency and compactness could be addressed with what Shimano patented (chain transfer over two cassettes essentially), but you still have the casing.

Derailleur drivetrains are really damn good.

1
jonkranked
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16 hours ago
Mwood wrote:
Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/ It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials...

Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/

 

It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials, but they got to be doing well if they are offering a 100k prize purse. Can anyone read into their reporting and tell us how good/bad they are doing? 

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely...

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely spend far more on their company Christmas party than on the belt drive bounty for bikes. Put another way, $100K isn't even a rounding error for a company of that scale, its almost insignificant. 

Regardless of size, from my perspective, it's an interesting bet. On one hand, I’m all for incentivizing brands to adopt belt-driven gearboxes. Personally, I’m very interested in designing bikes that eliminate the conventional drivetrain altogether, even with a weight penalty. However, everyone I know who has used Pinion-like technologies says the same thing: for most riding, a derailleur is superior—better shifting under load, smoother operation, greater efficiency, lighter and cheaper. 

Part of me thinks Gates might be pursuing this as a broader advertising strategy to build brand equity. Similar to what WD-40 might be doing, this could be an attempt to improve the brand's perception among a higher-income, more affluent demographic. That approach could be worthwhile even if there’s no direct correlation between the investment and measurable outcomes.

That said, I don’t think this is purely an advertising play. It seems more intentional. I noticed they recently had a job posting up for a role that involved strategizing and selling into the bicycle, powersports, and ‘big boy toy’ markets. Given Gates’ presence in the CTV market (snowmobiles, side-by-sides, etc.), it could be a great fit for someone in this forum, if the posting is still open. Digressions aside, I really wish we'd see more investment into making a gearbox that really does compete side by side with current drivetrains, but that may be like saying "I want an electric airplane that I can fly coast to coast on". It sounds great, but basically violates our current understanding of engineering, material science and battery technology. Its unicornware. 

 

personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor the floodgates would probably open up.

6
amaranth
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15 hours ago
Mwood wrote:
Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/ It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials...

Via Team Rumours; did not know Gates Belt Drives was a public company on the NYSE: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GTES/

 

It’s above my pay-grade to go through their financials, but they got to be doing well if they are offering a 100k prize purse. Can anyone read into their reporting and tell us how good/bad they are doing? 

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely...

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely spend far more on their company Christmas party than on the belt drive bounty for bikes. Put another way, $100K isn't even a rounding error for a company of that scale, its almost insignificant. 

Regardless of size, from my perspective, it's an interesting bet. On one hand, I’m all for incentivizing brands to adopt belt-driven gearboxes. Personally, I’m very interested in designing bikes that eliminate the conventional drivetrain altogether, even with a weight penalty. However, everyone I know who has used Pinion-like technologies says the same thing: for most riding, a derailleur is superior—better shifting under load, smoother operation, greater efficiency, lighter and cheaper. 

Part of me thinks Gates might be pursuing this as a broader advertising strategy to build brand equity. Similar to what WD-40 might be doing, this could be an attempt to improve the brand's perception among a higher-income, more affluent demographic. That approach could be worthwhile even if there’s no direct correlation between the investment and measurable outcomes.

That said, I don’t think this is purely an advertising play. It seems more intentional. I noticed they recently had a job posting up for a role that involved strategizing and selling into the bicycle, powersports, and ‘big boy toy’ markets. Given Gates’ presence in the CTV market (snowmobiles, side-by-sides, etc.), it could be a great fit for someone in this forum, if the posting is still open. Digressions aside, I really wish we'd see more investment into making a gearbox that really does compete side by side with current drivetrains, but that may be like saying "I want an electric airplane that I can fly coast to coast on". It sounds great, but basically violates our current understanding of engineering, material science and battery technology. Its unicornware. 

 

jonkranked wrote:
personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor...

personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor the floodgates would probably open up.

Pinion already has that, the MGU, and it...uhm, hasn't really taken off. 

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jonkranked
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15 hours ago
To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely...

To echo what @Robbie420  mentioned, Gates is a massive and highly profitable company, generating over $400 million in free cash flow just last quarter. They likely spend far more on their company Christmas party than on the belt drive bounty for bikes. Put another way, $100K isn't even a rounding error for a company of that scale, its almost insignificant. 

Regardless of size, from my perspective, it's an interesting bet. On one hand, I’m all for incentivizing brands to adopt belt-driven gearboxes. Personally, I’m very interested in designing bikes that eliminate the conventional drivetrain altogether, even with a weight penalty. However, everyone I know who has used Pinion-like technologies says the same thing: for most riding, a derailleur is superior—better shifting under load, smoother operation, greater efficiency, lighter and cheaper. 

Part of me thinks Gates might be pursuing this as a broader advertising strategy to build brand equity. Similar to what WD-40 might be doing, this could be an attempt to improve the brand's perception among a higher-income, more affluent demographic. That approach could be worthwhile even if there’s no direct correlation between the investment and measurable outcomes.

That said, I don’t think this is purely an advertising play. It seems more intentional. I noticed they recently had a job posting up for a role that involved strategizing and selling into the bicycle, powersports, and ‘big boy toy’ markets. Given Gates’ presence in the CTV market (snowmobiles, side-by-sides, etc.), it could be a great fit for someone in this forum, if the posting is still open. Digressions aside, I really wish we'd see more investment into making a gearbox that really does compete side by side with current drivetrains, but that may be like saying "I want an electric airplane that I can fly coast to coast on". It sounds great, but basically violates our current understanding of engineering, material science and battery technology. Its unicornware. 

 

jonkranked wrote:
personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor...

personally, i'm of the opinion (and others seem to be as well) is that once you can mate / integrate a gearbox with an e-bike motor the floodgates would probably open up.

amaranth wrote:

Pinion already has that, the MGU, and it...uhm, hasn't really taken off. 

was not aware they had one, thanks for the info.  perused the pinion site, aside from commuter and cargo bikes, it appears the only brands making MTBs with it are nicolai, rotwild, bulls, and some company named flyer.  

https://pinion.eu/en/bike-selection/#filter=.bike-getriebe-322

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