Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

bulletbass man
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From what I heard guerilla gravity’s problem is they had an investor with no interest in weathering the impending storm that the bike industry is in...

From what I heard guerilla gravity’s problem is they had an investor with no interest in weathering the impending storm that the bike industry is in now.  Reeb on the other hand is a passion product of someone who doesn’t have to worry about money.  They do not need to grow or even be profitable.  Much like the athertons who can rely on sponsorships for their personal income.  Atherton and reeb bikes doesn’t need to make a dime in their lifetime.  They can afford to put every bit of revenue back into the company and better yet can trade on their name to find similarly minded investors whose interest is more or less creating something cool rather than being cool to sell something.


The choice of modular frames and their carbon construction method was unique.  I think barelli was a great choice in an ambassador (much like lenosky is for reeb).  Their ala carte method to bike builds was pretty well done.  I have seen a lot of ggs with a push on it.  Ultimately I think they were doing a lot of things right to differentiate themselves in a crowded market.

One other issue in the  GG plan.. With the whole Revved carbon deal, they were hoping to become a manufacturer for other companies that wanted to...

One other issue in the  GG plan.. With the whole Revved carbon deal, they were hoping to become a manufacturer for other companies that wanted to have a Made in the USA carbon bike to sell... I don't think that they got any takers on that, at  least not that I know of.. 

The only issue I saw with the modular design was as an enduro or heavy duty trail bike, it was fine.. But, in the shorter travel Trail Pistol set up, it was definitely on the heavier side of things. A friend of mine had one, it was sick.. 

What I heard the company was essentially split into a technology side (which is or at least was doing some work for some stateside brands post split) and the bike brand which was liquidated.  And I’d bet there was some financial finagling involved in that decision as well:

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Rick26
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I know this may sound crass, but the Rocky Mountain announcement, much like the GT announcement, doesn’t surprise me. Consolidation in the specialty cycling space has...

I know this may sound crass, but the Rocky Mountain announcement, much like the GT announcement, doesn’t surprise me. Consolidation in the specialty cycling space has been anticipated for a long time. This consolidation doesn’t always mean brands acquiring other brands; it can also result from major players like Specialized or Trek dominating enough of the market to squeeze out mid-sized competitors. If a brand fails to offer something truly compelling—whether that’s performance, price, brand equity, reliability, or innovation—it’s going to struggle. Unfortunately, the nature of economies of scale makes this consolidation almost a self-fulfilling prophecy.

To draw a parallel (albeit a slightly apples-to-oranges one), consider Intel’s struggles relative to Nvidia over the last decade. Resting on your laurels and failing to adapt opens the door for competitors to overtake you. Love them or hate them, it’s hard to argue with how effectively Specialized and similar brands have executed their strategies over the past five-plus years and how compelling the value prop is from these types of companies. Everyone has to sell at the same price(ish), but Specialized is going to sell a lot more bikes, and their COGS is likely lower than say, Transistion. 

Regarding model year cycles, I’ve touched on this before (including on the podcast), and I completely agree with the sentiment here: they need to be longer. With performance reaching a plateau, longer cycles allow companies to amortize costs over extended periods and, in turn, reduce risk—provided they launch products that truly resonate with the market. Longer cycles also require companies to be more deliberate about what they bring to market. Margins are tighter, and it’s harder to sell in this environment, but if you do hit the mark, the product can generate revenue for a longer period.

Lastly, I’m confident that PON employs many smart individuals. They may not always make perfect decisions, but I guarantee someone there has a solid grasp of cost-based accounting and financial analysis. GT has probably been on the chopping block for years, and their only regret might be not making the decision sooner.

Masjo wrote:
One thing that this made me think of with respect to Rocky was their desire to make their own e-MTB motor/battery and not take an off-the-shelf...

One thing that this made me think of with respect to Rocky was their desire to make their own e-MTB motor/battery and not take an off-the-shelf model from Shimano, Bosch, or others. I thought I remember this being a thing, though I see they license the unit from another Canadian company called Dyname who seem to only supply Rocky. Was this maybe a step too far for a medium sized company? It could have been something revolutionary in that Rocky would get to keep more of their sales dollars from the ever-growing e-bike market, but maybe they just don't have the size or capital to offset the bill that this comes with versus using an existing system like Bosch or Shimano.  

Primoz wrote:
I've heard a few things about mid-drive drive unit development and the challenges over the years as two of these units were developed in Slovenia and...

I've heard a few things about mid-drive drive unit development and the challenges over the years as two of these units were developed in Slovenia and with the country being that small, it's easy for information to spread around the community.

As alluded to in the Tech rumours topic regarding wireless piggyback dropper post actuator development, when it comes to electronics (or mechatronics), things get a lot more complicated than with simple mechanics. You need a good sized company to do a mid-drive unit as it requires the development of a motor, the geartrain (dropping the revs to the crankarm rotational speed), torque sensing, you need to implement the spindle with the torque sensing and have the bearings very well sealed, you need control electronics and the software on it, some sort of casing (usually cast aluminium with the bigger guys) and you need to develop all of that. You need to make it reliable and predictable, which means calibration of the SW as to how the motor engages is an important (and not an easy) thing. If at all possible, you need to develop the BLDC motor and do the winding in house, if you're buying the rotor and stator, you are beholden to what an off the shelf supplier can offer (not really sure how much of that is available vs. standard brushed motors) so I'm guessing you really want to do something on your own to be free design wise. Quite a few of the mid-drive units were at least initially (if not anymore) based on existing automotive BLDC applications, like electric power steering motors, electric oil/water pumps, etc.

While this gives you a lot of freedom (Rocky for example uses a standard BB and crankset with the drive unit decoupled - surely a way to make the drive unit easier to develop) if you do it for your own bike only, it's a HUGE cost that can be covered only by large numbers - did anyone else actually do a motor only for themselves besides Rocky and Specialized with the SL line?

This covered only the drive unit, you then also have the batteries and the controls that you need to develop which is a whole other undertaking besides this. Doing all of this from a garage would require a VERY special set of people with some very interesting financing to make it happen, but in reality I can see it being done only by really large companies. I work for an automotive supplier with yearly revenue of around 100 million € and while I think we are on the cusp of being capable of doing a drive unit in house (we deal with these kinds of stuff, so we have the general knowhow, suppliers and the production and measuring equipment). It would take 3 years of development too. Plus the batteries (and controls to some extent) are a mystery to us plus with the market the way it is, there is no hope of actually penetrating it as an unknown supplier from 'eastern' (actually central) Europe. If some people have doubts about DJI, we would get laughed at by basically everyone.

I believe Rocky Mountain are still alone making their own drive unit.

The Specialized SL units you're referring to are made by Mahle and Brose are making their full power motors.

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Primoz
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1 day ago Edited Date/Time 1 day ago

Developed by MAHLE (in Slovenia), including the assembly line and testing of it (run at rate or something along those lines), then the whole thing was shipped overseas. Not sure where to and how the agreement is like, it could be in one of MAHLEs factories overseas, but the information I have is that Specialized took over the assembly line when it was done. And I'm quite sure they are the owners of the developed design. 

Brose is the supplier for full power motors, but Specialized is not the only customer for Brose. They are the sole users of the SL motors. That is the distinction I was trying to make. You can get Brose to supply you motors, you cannot get SL motors if you are not Specialized. 

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Maxipedia
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22 hours ago

I ride a Rocky Mountain e-bike and it has done two things to me:

1. bring my joy for riding back
2. make me buy another Rocky Mountain, a Slayer, which I also love

Regarding point number one, it is my far the best e-bike I have ever ridden and it isn't about the fact that it has that extra torque, but how the power is delivered, how balanced it feels, how the motor is integrated in the frame, how you benefit from that weight that is positioned lower, how well the suspension works, how good the geometry feels etc. I bought it by circumstance, but it turned me into a believer. And I was happily riding a Bosch e-bike before and was fond about the Turbo Levo as well. But this set new standards for me, that are still to be reached. By Bosch's new motor, among other things.

I felt the need to write the above, because I see people question Rocky for doing their own motor and how that somehow translates to kind of an arrogance and the next thought that is kinda suggested is that they have ”deserved it”, just for doing this. As if it is a bad thing to produce everything that you can under your own umbrella, when you have the means to do it. From my understanding, the company that made and developed the motors for Rocky is under the same parent company as them.

Otherwise, I totally dig when people talk about the high prices of high end bikes these days, but what I can't understand is why just some companies are being thrown shade at. I mean, why is it a problem that Rocky costs what it costs, but it is no issue when a Santa Cruz, Pivot or Yeti does just that, not to mention a boring S-Works??? BTW, from the list above, SC, Pivot and Specialized are made in the Far East too. So aren't the people who are whining about Rocky Mountain bikes costing ”so much” just hypocritical and using a double standard?

Oh, and speaking of quality and finish and overall feel, the two carbon Rockies I own are better than most of the other carbon bikes I have had contact with until now, including Santa Cruz and Pivot. But this is just subjective, I know.

Mx

11
19 hours ago
Maxipedia wrote:
I ride a Rocky Mountain e-bike and it has done two things to me:1. bring my joy for riding back2. make me buy another Rocky Mountain...

I ride a Rocky Mountain e-bike and it has done two things to me:

1. bring my joy for riding back
2. make me buy another Rocky Mountain, a Slayer, which I also love

Regarding point number one, it is my far the best e-bike I have ever ridden and it isn't about the fact that it has that extra torque, but how the power is delivered, how balanced it feels, how the motor is integrated in the frame, how you benefit from that weight that is positioned lower, how well the suspension works, how good the geometry feels etc. I bought it by circumstance, but it turned me into a believer. And I was happily riding a Bosch e-bike before and was fond about the Turbo Levo as well. But this set new standards for me, that are still to be reached. By Bosch's new motor, among other things.

I felt the need to write the above, because I see people question Rocky for doing their own motor and how that somehow translates to kind of an arrogance and the next thought that is kinda suggested is that they have ”deserved it”, just for doing this. As if it is a bad thing to produce everything that you can under your own umbrella, when you have the means to do it. From my understanding, the company that made and developed the motors for Rocky is under the same parent company as them.

Otherwise, I totally dig when people talk about the high prices of high end bikes these days, but what I can't understand is why just some companies are being thrown shade at. I mean, why is it a problem that Rocky costs what it costs, but it is no issue when a Santa Cruz, Pivot or Yeti does just that, not to mention a boring S-Works??? BTW, from the list above, SC, Pivot and Specialized are made in the Far East too. So aren't the people who are whining about Rocky Mountain bikes costing ”so much” just hypocritical and using a double standard?

Oh, and speaking of quality and finish and overall feel, the two carbon Rockies I own are better than most of the other carbon bikes I have had contact with until now, including Santa Cruz and Pivot. But this is just subjective, I know.

Mx

there is generally nothing 'special' about a rocky mountain though and i think thats why people hate on the price.
 Santa cruz atleast offer their lifetime warranty and just work.
Pivot, i agree, they are overpriced asf, their fit and finish it really nice though.

Yeti's sb150 put them in a good place for a good 'do it all' and with infinity link they seem to have a loyal fanbase.

sworks.... well lets be honest, unless you got the frame via warranty they are a terrible choice and some bikes like the Stumpy EVO... the frame is the exact same except 1 carbon linkage

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metadave
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18 hours ago

I think Rocky still carries some of that "general bike company" feelings with some people. If you asked me 12 years ago if I'd buy a Rocky I'd have looked at you like a crazy person, they were more boring than Jamis other than DH and freeride bikes. Now they've been my last 3 bikes and I'm currently looking at the new Element. Yeah I work at a shop that sells them, but I have 5 other brands to pick from as well as other brands that still give industry deals that are most of the rest listed as high end options. I've picked Rocky for a reason, the last 8 years, what they've done in the small details is fantastic and the way they ride is 👌and as much as people complain about their pricing, their A and C70 models usually have full aftermarket parts spec, pre-installed cushcore/proper tires that are model dependant, full XT, fox factory. And the A30 models are usually pretty damn cheap with as good a build as you can get for that pricing.

When I was building my current Altitude, I realized they started doing new stuff for the first time, like small details that other high end brands don't, such as the fully routed internal cables and hose tubes where the rear brake tube is actually split just under the storage door, with separate tubes leading up to the front ports for regular or moto brake routing to keep things clean. You're not doing that on a Yeti. 

Their ebikes having almost completely serviceable drivetrains, with even replaceable motor controllers and serviceable drive chains is unlike anyone else in the industry. I ride them because they're doing stuff right. I hope they get through this intact and keep doing what they're doing because I think they're finally breaking out of that "boring bike company" stigma completely with the new line. 

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Suns_PSD
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17 hours ago

I've been honing in on RM bikes for a few years as I watched them build the arguably best Enduro style bike in the Altitude & the best Downcountry bike in the Element. Adjustable, great geo, the right rear suspension, lightweight frames, etc.

Lately they have released the most interesting mid power e-bike with the Instinct SL. Most powerful mid power, largest battery back + a huge RE, Adjustable Reach and their Ride 4, MId/ high pivot design with the best power delivery, competitive weight for the included features. I see it as a solid step up from my Relay, once set up BC style as a 150/ 160 MX.

The bikes seem worth the premiums that they ask. Before all of the BK business I was actively shopping for a deal on the Instinct SL.

Regarding deal shopping, in the past I always just bought the bikes I wanted and didn't worry much about scoring a discount, but frankly I'm tired of losing thousands within just months over and over. This time, I'm waiting for that discount.

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Maxipedia
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16 hours ago
metadave wrote:
I think Rocky still carries some of that "general bike company" feelings with some people. If you asked me 12 years ago if I'd buy a...

I think Rocky still carries some of that "general bike company" feelings with some people. If you asked me 12 years ago if I'd buy a Rocky I'd have looked at you like a crazy person, they were more boring than Jamis other than DH and freeride bikes. Now they've been my last 3 bikes and I'm currently looking at the new Element. Yeah I work at a shop that sells them, but I have 5 other brands to pick from as well as other brands that still give industry deals that are most of the rest listed as high end options. I've picked Rocky for a reason, the last 8 years, what they've done in the small details is fantastic and the way they ride is 👌and as much as people complain about their pricing, their A and C70 models usually have full aftermarket parts spec, pre-installed cushcore/proper tires that are model dependant, full XT, fox factory. And the A30 models are usually pretty damn cheap with as good a build as you can get for that pricing.

When I was building my current Altitude, I realized they started doing new stuff for the first time, like small details that other high end brands don't, such as the fully routed internal cables and hose tubes where the rear brake tube is actually split just under the storage door, with separate tubes leading up to the front ports for regular or moto brake routing to keep things clean. You're not doing that on a Yeti. 

Their ebikes having almost completely serviceable drivetrains, with even replaceable motor controllers and serviceable drive chains is unlike anyone else in the industry. I ride them because they're doing stuff right. I hope they get through this intact and keep doing what they're doing because I think they're finally breaking out of that "boring bike company" stigma completely with the new line. 

Reading this and especially the ”general bike company” part made me think of the following: 

1. people on forums, social media and commentary sections whining that bikes are too gimmicky and that model changes are too often gratuitous 
2. bike company is doing nothing fancy, no gimmicks, just honing on a proven formula, that has made their product appreciated by those who used it
3. people on forums, social media and commentary sections whining that bikes of said company don't have enough gimmicks, features and ”novelty”
4. the end

Over here I've had some interesting reactions from people observing my Rocky, most of them ignorant to the brand. Take into consideration that a lot of beginners and newbies here ride Rockrider, a Decathlon brand, some of the cheapest bikes out there. Some people think it's ”a Rockrider”. Others said ”the bikes don't look like anything special”, meaning they are not spectacular enough. The last segment are the ones who know heritage, observed the evolution of the bikes and maybe the success of the enduro team. I got congratulations from this demographic. Oh, and there are the ones who don't notice my Instinct is an e-bike and are amazed the second they find out. Smile )) Long story short, on these shores Rocky remains a brand for people in the know.

The obvious conclusion is that people will always want not only the best bang for their buck, but also the newest tech, just for the sake of it, even if they can't exactly say or feel how it benefits them. It jsut has to be there. Better have a faulty product but with the newest shit than something proven but more boring, I guess...

Mx

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brash
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12 hours ago

skip to 10m 30sec, Seth makes a good point here. Puts the companies on blast a bit.

 

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kperras
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11 hours ago

Lots of nice comments about Rockys; I certainly appreciate it. 

I have faith that something will transpire over the next few months and Rocky will emerge on the other side a better company. The brand is very strong and there are many passionate but also smart people that want to see it carry on. Some would argue that it was time for new leadership so this is one way to make that happen. In the meantime I'll be skiing and biking for the remainder of the winter. 

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