Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would...
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would be above those two (still low on the list of $4k frames though!). I say this as a person with no industry insider discount who buys a new frame every year. Surprised frame prices aren’t at least a tad less insane, in order to hook this segment of the market. Maybe discounts on framesets will be the new norm and only the early adopters will pay full freight?
Bullish Propain and Commencal since they have just in time builds. (any others?) Even on those it’s hard to justify a full build since all my existing components are amazing and are compatible with pretty much any frame out there. (Of which they’re all really good now)
Yeah, and the frame prices on the other side of the pond are even more insane. About $1000-1500 more on average for any of the big name brands.
Propain are about half that, and they often run 15% discount on everything on their site. So I definitely see why they are selling more and more.
Parts here are often relatively cheap though. I have bought 3 Transmission groupsets at between 40%-50% off, the latest rockshox forks are like $500 off every now and then. And spesh has had insane discounts on their traverse wheels for the past few months, any stock left with DT hubs have had 50% discounts.
So some times we (or I rather) can justify the slightly higher cost of the frames, since I can get most of the other big ticket items for almost half the price. Built my last bike for about half the price of what the manufacturer wanted for a full build with similar parts.
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts.
Assumption on Capex: You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah).
Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.
The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.
At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.
I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)
Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year?
I mean we're all shooting darts with at least one eye closed here; no one knows what's going on and if they did it wouldn't be made public here. I sincerely hope all the brands, especially the ones with true cycling enthusiasts, make it in the long run.
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts. Assumption on Capex: You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of...
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts.
Assumption on Capex: You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah).
Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.
The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.
At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.
I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)
Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year?
Catching up on the thread and not to pile on to said dead horse but there is info out there for Athertons (bikes, racing, trees, etc) if you're so inclined. Some interesting reading if you're @jeff.brines geeky. For the record, I like what they're doing, am a big fan, and hope to add one of their bikes to my garage later this year.
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any...
I’ve been getting lots of ads for evil bikes on sale. Some on IG are even some of their quite old frames (straight steerer tubes). Any idea on if they are in trouble?
Kevin has gone through the mud for that brand, the Revolt fiasco should’ve been the nail in the coffin but he soldiered on, would be sad...
Kevin has gone through the mud for that brand, the Revolt fiasco should’ve been the nail in the coffin but he soldiered on, would be sad to see them close up shop now. I saw a little while ago that they let go of a bunch of people from hq. Not sure if it was only retail/ wrench type employees or what.
IMO they’ve sort of priced themselves out, they make a premium product to be sure but not many options on full builds, and the sorts of people laying out the sort of cash they want for their frames/ full builds are gonna have some specific parts requests… a $4000 frameset really limits your already limited market imo. But hey I’m just a dork on the internet.
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would...
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would be above those two (still low on the list of $4k frames though!). I say this as a person with no industry insider discount who buys a new frame every year. Surprised frame prices aren’t at least a tad less insane, in order to hook this segment of the market. Maybe discounts on framesets will be the new norm and only the early adopters will pay full freight?
Bullish Propain and Commencal since they have just in time builds. (any others?) Even on those it’s hard to justify a full build since all my existing components are amazing and are compatible with pretty much any frame out there. (Of which they’re all really good now)
This is a fairly new thing now, for the longest time a frame up build required basically all new components. And selling a frame on the used market is usually harder than a complete bike.
Even with deals you are mentioning I still doubt it makes it worth doing a parts build vs. a complete bike for most people... The price delta with bikes stuff is just too big, at least on msrp. Doing my Bird build in 2019 it cost me 4500 eur, an equal build with a Raaw Madonna with German prices would be 7500 eur (didn't look at any deals, but 3k is A LOT of money).
This is a fairly new thing now, for the longest time a frame up build required basically all new components. And selling a frame on the...
This is a fairly new thing now, for the longest time a frame up build required basically all new components. And selling a frame on the used market is usually harder than a complete bike.
Even with deals you are mentioning I still doubt it makes it worth doing a parts build vs. a complete bike for most people... The price delta with bikes stuff is just too big, at least on msrp. Doing my Bird build in 2019 it cost me 4500 eur, an equal build with a Raaw Madonna with German prices would be 7500 eur (didn't look at any deals, but 3k is A LOT of money).
I tend to agree on that somewhat. If you're paying msrp for parts,prices are probably similar, if you have a shop build it. Only positive is you get to choose exactly what you want.
That was how it started for me. You get a prefrence for certain parts. So if I buy a complete I want different tires, pads, grips, handlebar, different stem length, seat etc, it doesnt really make sense buying a complete.
But with the discounts, we're talking maybe $7k for a frame up build with every single part hand picked, vs a $12-13k complete bike (even more some times) - Granted you need the space, the tools, and knowledge. I can build a "super bike" for mid-tier bike pricing. (Keep in mind prices here in Europe are probably 20% higher on completes for many brands)
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
shark tank for bikes? received this email/PR yesterday.
Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator Launches, Seeks Applicants for Inaugural Cohort BENTONVILLE, Arkansas USA. (January 7, 2025) – The Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator (AGCA) has officially launched in Bentonville, Arkansas, a destination that is positioned to become a global center for cycling innovation.
This new initiative, led by cycling industry veterans and entrepreneurial experts, aims to attract a cohort of 10 exceptional startups from North America, Europe, and Asia. The accelerator will offer a 10-week hybrid program designed to support cycling-related tech innovation, provide access to key investors and mentors, and build strategic partnerships with top brands in the industry.
AGCA’s mission aligns with Arkansas’ ongoing investment in cycling infrastructure, creating a unique ecosystem where tech-enabled solutions for cycling can test and scale. With its focus on both business growth and cutting-edge technology, the accelerator promises to foster long-term cycling industry growth in Arkansas. It will be led by staff from Startup Junkie Foundation and the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship & Innovation’s (OEI) Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP). Arkansas, with its dense cycling community and world-class infrastructure, provides the perfect backdrop for this ambitious project. “This is an exciting time for the cycling industry, and Arkansas is well-positioned to be at the forefront of it all,” said Martial Trigeaud, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Cardinal Cycling Group and the accelerator’s Founder and Cohort Advisor.
“Startup Junkie has supported new startups in Arkansas for over a decade,” said Caleb Talley, Executive Director of the Startup Junkie Foundation. “Given the importance of cycling to our state’s economy and the density of industry leaders in our community, it made sense for us to help organize and execute this new program alongside our colleagues from the GORP program and with Martial’s cycling expertise.” Startups interested in shaping the future of cycling are encouraged to apply to AGCA’s inaugural cohort. Applications are open now at www.cyclingaccelerator.com. Interviews will be conducted on a rolling basis until the application window closes on Tuesday, February 11. Decisions will be announced by Tuesday, February 18.
The program was sponsored by a $125,000 grant from the Arkansas Economic Development Commission and a funding match from the Walton Family Foundation.
About the Startup Junkie Foundation: The Startup Junkie Foundation is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization based in Northwest Arkansas that focuses on supporting entrepreneurs and fostering economic development. The foundation works to provide resources, mentorship, and educational programs to help entrepreneurs start and grow their businesses, with a particular emphasis on serving underrepresented founders and rural communities.
About the Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program: The Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP) is a business incubation program focused on the development of entrepreneurs who are creating innovative products and services within the outdoor recreation industry. Launched by the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in 2022, the program has directly supported 47 companies through its cohort incubator and program staff have consulted on over 400 business ideas in the outdoor recreation space.
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean."At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this...
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
Speaking on large capital spend + world cup racing precense... the announcement of Jenny Rissveds moving on from Ibis to Canyon caught my attention. It could be a nothingburger and just another contract move, but Ibis seems to be progressively leaving the racing scene in a time shortly following their large CAPEX investment with the opening up of their new Santa Cruz manufacturing facility.
I think he might be referring to import duties instead of conversion as the price of the bike is known from the beginning. My A.170 was...
I think he might be referring to import duties instead of conversion as the price of the bike is known from the beginning.
My A.170 was delivered the second week of December so I can give you a pretty accurate breakdown of current costs:
I have the Fox spec'ed version and the price when I bought it was $9608.33. This was on August 5th. I made some changes along the way that increased a bit but that was my choice and I was always informed of the price before needing to commit. Once it went to DHL I was required to pay import duties and fees to have it delivered. That amounted to $1244.95. Of course there was no VAT so I don't know that it is really a penalty in comparison.
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean."At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this...
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you...
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
Not 100% sure but if I remember correctly this is a commercial building unit and Bernard Kerr rents the left side of it. Not sure if it‘s their own.
They've been doing the GORP program for a while, and they've had some cycling-related startups come through it. Natural State Carbon Repair (name says it all) is...
They've been doing the GORP program for a while, and they've had some cycling-related startups come through it.
Natural State Carbon Repair (name says it all) is in current cohort I believe.
My favorite is Gnargo Cargo Bikes, which are just awesome. They upcycle old bike frames into sweet cargo e-bikes.
Gnargo Cargo Bikes is rad! Thank you for sharing that!
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.Could you have...
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
That's a really interesting idea! Not sure if it can be done, maybe someone else can chime in.
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.Could you have...
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
That's a really interesting idea! Not sure if it can be done, maybe someone else can chime in.
That used to be a common thing to do if you were close to the Canada/US border - drive south, buy a bike, ride it for a week, drive it back across the border. Easy peasy. CBS only seemed to care about alcohol and fresh veg/fruit. Not worth it these days with the CAD $ trading so poorly against USD.
That's a really interesting idea! Not sure if it can be done, maybe someone else can chime in.
It's not strictly legal, but it can be done. Worst case scenario you have to pay the import duty if they stopped you and worked out what you'd done, but chances are they wouldn't even look at you.
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.Could you have...
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
In theory yes and I considered doing it but it definitely would have cost me more to do that way. I wouldn't have bothered with the Walmart bike part of it though. There is no tracing for stuff like that. I'm usually in Europe several times/year for work or vacation but it wouldn't be worth it for me to do it that way unless I was already going to be in England. I was well aware that this was going to be the deal when I ordered it anyway. I'm kinda used to doing it because I buy a lot of stuff from Germany and Italy that requires import duties.
In regards to Atherton Bikes, they have had 2 rounds of croundfunding that got them through the setup process plus a investment from Piers Linney of dragons den (uk version of shark tank). The second round of funding was to help get them setup for the A series of bikes.
The new factory was also in conjunction with Welsh govenment grants to help the local area growth - this was also what Bernard Kerr has done to get his Pivot racing base (he explained this in one of the videos when he moved into the building) - plus Dan is now a member of the local council so I guess that helps them in some way
There was also some insta stories that Gee posted about a year ago where they were invited to a event run by the Saudi PIF fund so dont know if that went any further?
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean."At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this...
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you...
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you...
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from address. Really hope Evil makes it because I love DW and have heard their bikes ride like nothing else!
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from...
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from address. Really hope Evil makes it because I love DW and have heard their bikes ride like nothing else!
Is that new or used? It would make sense to sell some old demo stuff as they go into the new year.
Just to put a fork in this one, I did hear from a reputable unnamed source that AB is doing just fine. So, lets chalk that up to the first "L" of the year for me! I feel my big miss here was twofold, besides the fact the flat out make a killer bike.
Equity Sale: They raised at least $4M, which is a chunk. Plus, its equity so you aren't on the clock to pay it back. This is plenty of capital to put infrastructure in place without financing terms you'd usually have to be subjected to. Hence, if they own their fancy building outright, and own their tooling & machinery, it sure is a lot easier to operate the business in the black.
Subsidies: It seems AB has done a good job taking advantage of local, regional and national subsidies. Heck, they even help UK customers figure out ways to get up to a 40% discount on their bikes. https://www.athertonbikes.com/cycle-to-work
Phew. Looks like I'll maybe one day still have the opportunity to own one of these!
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from...
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from address. Really hope Evil makes it because I love DW and have heard their bikes ride like nothing else!
Is that new or used? It would make sense to sell some old demo stuff as they go into the new year.
Also pretty common for people to use their corporate shipping service to ship personal stuff: ie: an employee is selling off a shock and using the Evil mail service to ship it.
Anyone have any idea how YT is doing it? They just seem to be expanding in all facets and putting down some major outlays of capital (the YT Mills, expanding race teams, etc..). I mean, if you've got the resources, now is definitely a good time to gain some market share and grow, but I'm just not sure HOW they're doing it (I think I read something about an investor a while back in early 2020s?).
YT just released a "new" core line for the Izzo.Anyone have any idea how YT is doing it? They just seem to be expanding in all...
YT just released a "new" core line for the Izzo.
Anyone have any idea how YT is doing it? They just seem to be expanding in all facets and putting down some major outlays of capital (the YT Mills, expanding race teams, etc..). I mean, if you've got the resources, now is definitely a good time to gain some market share and grow, but I'm just not sure HOW they're doing it (I think I read something about an investor a while back in early 2020s?).
If I had to venture a theory, they're playing the quantity game at those prices. Additionally, while their lineup isn't small, they don't have that many models when you compare them to various other bike companies - not too much fluff.
One thing that stands out to me is just how long their product lifecycles are, which spreads out some of the manufacturing/engineering expenses. In my opinion the Izzo is due for a slight geometry refresh, along with maybe the addition of new features/kinematics as they deem appropriate to keep the bike "modern" - or at least in the eye of the consumer. The Izzo frame was released in April of 2020, and to my awareness, is unchanged during that time (colors and build kits aside).
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would...
Blows my mind that Norco and Rocky want $4000 for a frame. I’ll never spend that much on a frame, but if I did Evil would be above those two (still low on the list of $4k frames though!). I say this as a person with no industry insider discount who buys a new frame every year. Surprised frame prices aren’t at least a tad less insane, in order to hook this segment of the market. Maybe discounts on framesets will be the new norm and only the early adopters will pay full freight?
Bullish Propain and Commencal since they have just in time builds. (any others?) Even on those it’s hard to justify a full build since all my existing components are amazing and are compatible with pretty much any frame out there. (Of which they’re all really good now)
Yeah, and the frame prices on the other side of the pond are even more insane. About $1000-1500 more on average for any of the big...
Yeah, and the frame prices on the other side of the pond are even more insane. About $1000-1500 more on average for any of the big name brands.
Propain are about half that, and they often run 15% discount on everything on their site. So I definitely see why they are selling more and more.
Parts here are often relatively cheap though. I have bought 3 Transmission groupsets at between 40%-50% off, the latest rockshox forks are like $500 off every now and then. And spesh has had insane discounts on their traverse wheels for the past few months, any stock left with DT hubs have had 50% discounts.
So some times we (or I rather) can justify the slightly higher cost of the frames, since I can get most of the other big ticket items for almost half the price. Built my last bike for about half the price of what the manufacturer wanted for a full build with similar parts.
I do agree trying to charge 4k for a frame is a bit too much, they're not the only ones though. SC/Yeti all do it too. That being said, Norco stuff goes on sale a lot; I picked up a last gen Optic frame for 1.2k and bought my wife the complete Fluid carbon C1 for 3k...
Yeah, and the frame prices on the other side of the pond are even more insane. About $1000-1500 more on average for any of the big name brands.
Propain are about half that, and they often run 15% discount on everything on their site. So I definitely see why they are selling more and more.
Parts here are often relatively cheap though. I have bought 3 Transmission groupsets at between 40%-50% off, the latest rockshox forks are like $500 off every now and then. And spesh has had insane discounts on their traverse wheels for the past few months, any stock left with DT hubs have had 50% discounts.
So some times we (or I rather) can justify the slightly higher cost of the frames, since I can get most of the other big ticket items for almost half the price. Built my last bike for about half the price of what the manufacturer wanted for a full build with similar parts.
Since we're all beating this dead horse, I'll close with a few thoughts.
Assumption on Capex: You all are right, AB could be outsourcing all of their additive manufacturing and CNC work. However, if this is true, its going to make scaling the business harder than it already is and per unit costs higher. Not saying its impossible, but you are either caught carrying all sorts of inventory in the form of lugs and links, or you are somehow ridiculously tight with the vendors that are doing all this work for you, and risk long lead times and lost sales or higher amounts of inventory in a non manufactured state which has its own challenges. Regardless, if you don't have this in house, I see no way these bikes are somehow cheaper overall than a conventional carbon molded bike or normally welded bike. Again, I haven't taken on a gazillion bids for this type of work, but enough to know it is not cheap no matter who is doing the work externally for you (3D printing ti lugs, CNCing alloy lugs, plus manufacturing, plus building the bikes, plus packing and shipping them...gah).
Assumptions on Race Team Cost: This one I feel I'm likely correct on, though you all are right, they might have some kind of outside help I'm missing. The reason Frameworks can run a team like they can is really because of WD-40. I do not see a consumer product brand like WD-40 on the sponsor banner for AB, which is why I feel the company itself is likely putting up some real cash to run the program. Am I for sure right? Nope. But I'd bet that way more than the latter.
The company clearly makes a good product and clearly has a niche, I've never argued otherwise in any bit of what I'm suggesting.
At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it. Maybe I've been fooled and they in fact are in the black, running things lean and mean, or have some kind of grant from the local government. Lots of ways to find an advantage and I certainly hope they have one.
I need to be extra clear to close this piece. I am not rooting against the company. In fact, I want to own one of their bikes. I hope they have a long and prosperous future, full of immense financial success. They are incredibly cool, and as anyone who really knows me will attest, I have a thing for lugged carbon bikes (quick, somebody go post the BCD picture from my senior year of high school...21 years ago!!)
Okay, who has another fun hot take going into the year?
I mean we're all shooting darts with at least one eye closed here; no one knows what's going on and if they did it wouldn't be made public here. I sincerely hope all the brands, especially the ones with true cycling enthusiasts, make it in the long run.
So what does a company do if they have a new unreleased update to one of their bikes, but just said they are turning off the lights?
These companies that are heading out pasture all have current and likely new bikes sitting on the shelf, how are their supplies going to be absorbed?
I would like to see some gorilla marketing campaigns of yesterday year, none of these Norco ridiculous welcome video shenanigans.
Catching up on the thread and not to pile on to said dead horse but there is info out there for Athertons (bikes, racing, trees, etc) if you're so inclined. Some interesting reading if you're @jeff.brines geeky. For the record, I like what they're doing, am a big fan, and hope to add one of their bikes to my garage later this year.
Atherton Bikes 1, 2
Atherton Racing
Dyfi Bike Park
Dyfi Timber Company
Atherton Group Holdings
Tenths Distribution
This is a fairly new thing now, for the longest time a frame up build required basically all new components. And selling a frame on the used market is usually harder than a complete bike.
Even with deals you are mentioning I still doubt it makes it worth doing a parts build vs. a complete bike for most people... The price delta with bikes stuff is just too big, at least on msrp. Doing my Bird build in 2019 it cost me 4500 eur, an equal build with a Raaw Madonna with German prices would be 7500 eur (didn't look at any deals, but 3k is A LOT of money).
I tend to agree on that somewhat. If you're paying msrp for parts,prices are probably similar, if you have a shop build it. Only positive is you get to choose exactly what you want.
That was how it started for me. You get a prefrence for certain parts. So if I buy a complete I want different tires, pads, grips, handlebar, different stem length, seat etc, it doesnt really make sense buying a complete.
But with the discounts, we're talking maybe $7k for a frame up build with every single part hand picked, vs a $12-13k complete bike (even more some times) - Granted you need the space, the tools, and knowledge. I can build a "super bike" for mid-tier bike pricing. (Keep in mind prices here in Europe are probably 20% higher on completes for many brands)
@jeff.brines, one QQ and not because I disagree just because I'm not sure what you mean.
"At its core, majority of my thesis revolves around this idea that you can't have the infrastructure of a larger company which they appear to have without the revenue to justify it."
What about their infrastructure gives you the impression of a larger company? By larger company do you mean something on the scale of Rocky, Norco, or on the scale of Evil, Yeti?
shark tank for bikes? received this email/PR yesterday.
Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator Launches, Seeks Applicants for Inaugural Cohort
BENTONVILLE, Arkansas USA. (January 7, 2025) – The Arkansas Global Cycling Accelerator (AGCA) has officially launched in Bentonville, Arkansas, a destination that is positioned to become a global center for cycling innovation.
This new initiative, led by cycling industry veterans and entrepreneurial experts, aims to attract a cohort of 10 exceptional startups from North America, Europe, and Asia. The accelerator will offer a 10-week hybrid program designed to support cycling-related tech innovation, provide access to key investors and mentors, and build strategic partnerships with top brands in the industry.
AGCA’s mission aligns with Arkansas’ ongoing investment in cycling infrastructure, creating a unique ecosystem where tech-enabled solutions for cycling can test and scale. With its focus on both business growth and cutting-edge technology, the accelerator promises to foster long-term cycling industry growth in Arkansas. It will be led by staff from Startup Junkie Foundation and the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship & Innovation’s (OEI) Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP). Arkansas, with its dense cycling community and world-class infrastructure, provides the perfect backdrop for this ambitious project. “This is an exciting time for the cycling industry, and Arkansas is well-positioned to be at the forefront of it all,” said Martial Trigeaud, Co-Founder and Managing Partner at Cardinal Cycling Group and the accelerator’s Founder and Cohort Advisor.
“Startup Junkie has supported new startups in Arkansas for over a decade,” said Caleb Talley, Executive Director of the Startup Junkie Foundation. “Given the importance of cycling to our state’s economy and the density of industry leaders in our community, it made sense for us to help organize and execute this new program alongside our colleagues from the GORP program and with Martial’s cycling expertise.” Startups interested in shaping the future of cycling are encouraged to apply to AGCA’s inaugural cohort. Applications are open now at www.cyclingaccelerator.com. Interviews will be conducted on a rolling basis until the application window closes on Tuesday, February 11. Decisions will be announced by Tuesday, February 18.
The program was sponsored by a $125,000 grant from the Arkansas Economic Development Commission and a funding match from the Walton Family Foundation.
For more information, please visit www.cyclingaccelerator.com or contact AGCA staff at agca@uark.edu.
About the Startup Junkie Foundation: The Startup Junkie Foundation is a 501(c)(3) non-profit organization based in Northwest Arkansas that focuses on supporting entrepreneurs and fostering economic development. The foundation works to provide resources, mentorship, and educational programs to help entrepreneurs start and grow their businesses, with a particular emphasis on serving underrepresented founders and rural communities.
About the Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program: The Greenhouse Outdoor Recreation Program (GORP) is a business incubation program focused on the development of entrepreneurs who are creating innovative products and services within the outdoor recreation industry. Launched by the University of Arkansas Office of Entrepreneurship and Innovation in 2022, the program has directly supported 47 companies through its cohort incubator and program staff have consulted on over 400 business ideas in the outdoor recreation space.
CONTACT:
Caleb Talley
Executive Director
Startup Junkie Foundation
caleb@startupjunkie.org
They've been doing the GORP program for a while, and they've had some cycling-related startups come through it.
Natural State Carbon Repair (name says it all) is in current cohort I believe.
My favorite is Gnargo Cargo Bikes, which are just awesome. They upcycle old bike frames into sweet cargo e-bikes.
gnargo bikes look so rad! (sorry, OT)
This is Atherton's brand new HQ in Wales. Do you know how much a brand new purpose building like this costs? Lots of ££££££, before you pay dollar one on staff costs. Whenever I see big cool new shiny corporate HQ's in bike world, I think the companies think it's supposed to impress me, but it just worries me. A lot of the Bellingham companies got shiny new offices in high rent areas in the last 5-10 years and each of them took my breath away in a not-so-great way.
Speaking on large capital spend + world cup racing precense... the announcement of Jenny Rissveds moving on from Ibis to Canyon caught my attention. It could be a nothingburger and just another contract move, but Ibis seems to be progressively leaving the racing scene in a time shortly following their large CAPEX investment with the opening up of their new Santa Cruz manufacturing facility.
That is a lot of extra money to spend for a bike while being here in the States. I'd love one of their bikes.
Could you have gotten a bike bag, bought a used crappy Walmart mountain bike, traveled to Wales, dump the bike, picked up the new Atherton? Basically making it a trip to Wales for a few days riding at Dyfi to make it a two for one trip? Might have saved money. That was my plan if I bought one of those. You would have paid for it beforehand, didn't have to ship it because you are traveling with it, and you pass it off as the "bike" you brought on the trip? Circumventing the duties, and shipping costs for the cost of traveling with a bike bag.
Not 100% sure but if I remember correctly this is a commercial building unit and Bernard Kerr rents the left side of it. Not sure if it‘s their own.
Gnargo Cargo Bikes is rad! Thank you for sharing that!
That's a really interesting idea! Not sure if it can be done, maybe someone else can chime in.
That used to be a common thing to do if you were close to the Canada/US border - drive south, buy a bike, ride it for a week, drive it back across the border. Easy peasy. CBS only seemed to care about alcohol and fresh veg/fruit. Not worth it these days with the CAD $ trading so poorly against USD.
It's not strictly legal, but it can be done. Worst case scenario you have to pay the import duty if they stopped you and worked out what you'd done, but chances are they wouldn't even look at you.
In theory yes and I considered doing it but it definitely would have cost me more to do that way. I wouldn't have bothered with the Walmart bike part of it though. There is no tracing for stuff like that. I'm usually in Europe several times/year for work or vacation but it wouldn't be worth it for me to do it that way unless I was already going to be in England. I was well aware that this was going to be the deal when I ordered it anyway. I'm kinda used to doing it because I buy a lot of stuff from Germany and Italy that requires import duties.
In regards to Atherton Bikes, they have had 2 rounds of croundfunding that got them through the setup process plus a investment from Piers Linney of dragons den (uk version of shark tank). The second round of funding was to help get them setup for the A series of bikes.
The new factory was also in conjunction with Welsh govenment grants to help the local area growth - this was also what Bernard Kerr has done to get his Pivot racing base (he explained this in one of the videos when he moved into the building) - plus Dan is now a member of the local council so I guess that helps them in some way
There was also some insta stories that Gee posted about a year ago where they were invited to a event run by the Saudi PIF fund so dont know if that went any further?
I think Bernard Kerr / BK Sport / Pivot Factory Racing is across the street in a separate building.
IIRC Bernard said on one of The Ride Companion podcasts that he was paying £1600 pcm for the unit.
Browsing eBay last night and pickup a new shock for a smoking deal from a seemingly random seller until I take a gander at the from address. Really hope Evil makes it because I love DW and have heard their bikes ride like nothing else!
Is that new or used? It would make sense to sell some old demo stuff as they go into the new year.
Just to put a fork in this one, I did hear from a reputable unnamed source that AB is doing just fine. So, lets chalk that up to the first "L" of the year for me! I feel my big miss here was twofold, besides the fact the flat out make a killer bike.
Equity Sale: They raised at least $4M, which is a chunk. Plus, its equity so you aren't on the clock to pay it back. This is plenty of capital to put infrastructure in place without financing terms you'd usually have to be subjected to. Hence, if they own their fancy building outright, and own their tooling & machinery, it sure is a lot easier to operate the business in the black.
Subsidies: It seems AB has done a good job taking advantage of local, regional and national subsidies. Heck, they even help UK customers figure out ways to get up to a 40% discount on their bikes. https://www.athertonbikes.com/cycle-to-work
Phew. Looks like I'll maybe one day still have the opportunity to own one of these!
Also pretty common for people to use their corporate shipping service to ship personal stuff: ie: an employee is selling off a shock and using the Evil mail service to ship it.
YT just released a "new" core line for the Izzo.
Anyone have any idea how YT is doing it? They just seem to be expanding in all facets and putting down some major outlays of capital (the YT Mills, expanding race teams, etc..). I mean, if you've got the resources, now is definitely a good time to gain some market share and grow, but I'm just not sure HOW they're doing it (I think I read something about an investor a while back in early 2020s?).
If I had to venture a theory, they're playing the quantity game at those prices. Additionally, while their lineup isn't small, they don't have that many models when you compare them to various other bike companies - not too much fluff.
One thing that stands out to me is just how long their product lifecycles are, which spreads out some of the manufacturing/engineering expenses. In my opinion the Izzo is due for a slight geometry refresh, along with maybe the addition of new features/kinematics as they deem appropriate to keep the bike "modern" - or at least in the eye of the consumer. The Izzo frame was released in April of 2020, and to my awareness, is unchanged during that time (colors and build kits aside).
I do agree trying to charge 4k for a frame is a bit too much, they're not the only ones though. SC/Yeti all do it too. That being said, Norco stuff goes on sale a lot; I picked up a last gen Optic frame for 1.2k and bought my wife the complete Fluid carbon C1 for 3k...
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