Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

FullSend
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1/11/2024 10:02am Edited Date/Time 1/11/2024 10:03am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
Folks we are up to 125 now. And that's with NO e-bike only brands or hardtail-only brands. These are brands from at least the last decade...

Folks we are up to 125 now. And that's with NO e-bike only brands or hardtail-only brands. These are brands from at least the last decade. I have highlighted in Red the ones that are out of business for sure that I know of. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vS9c5gF00cIM_uuUDH66n_WAbPA…

Got some more for your list:

Actofive

Sour

Crossworx

Kavenz

Rose

Cavalerie Bikes

(All of them are smaller brands, but they do make legit mountainbikes)

 

Edit: Just realized you already had Kavenz and Rose

1
1
DubC
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1/11/2024 11:29am

Im very impressed by everyones counting skills, but maybe you can take Count van Count with you and start a different thread instead of derailing this one? Please and thank you. 

7
dolface
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1/11/2024 11:36am
DubC wrote:
Im very impressed by everyones counting skills, but maybe you can take Count van Count with you and start a different thread instead of derailing this...

Im very impressed by everyones counting skills, but maybe you can take Count van Count with you and start a different thread instead of derailing this one? Please and thank you. 

5
1/11/2024 2:33pm

Yes, posted already on the previous page. 

If this quote is true, its heartbreaking: 

"he [the founder] has invested more than $300,000 in the company and worked without salary for two and a half years"

4
Simcik
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1/11/2024 2:44pm
Yes, posted already on the previous page.  If this quote is true, its heartbreaking:  "he [the founder] has invested more than $300,000 in the company and...

Yes, posted already on the previous page. 

If this quote is true, its heartbreaking: 

"he [the founder] has invested more than $300,000 in the company and worked without salary for two and a half years"

Whoops, my bad. Sorry for double post. But yes, super sad. Jeff is a great guy in the times I have talked to him. Sucks to see this happen. 

2
wadafak
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1/11/2024 4:42pm

You HAD to see this comming. They look like crap.

7
Roots_rider
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1/11/2024 5:30pm
Ksilvey10 wrote:
Folks we are up to 125 now. And that's with NO e-bike only brands or hardtail-only brands. These are brands from at least the last decade...

Folks we are up to 125 now. And that's with NO e-bike only brands or hardtail-only brands. These are brands from at least the last decade. I have highlighted in Red the ones that are out of business for sure that I know of. 

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vS9c5gF00cIM_uuUDH66n_WAbPA…

FullSend wrote:
Got some more for your list: Actofive Sour Crossworx Kavenz Rose Cavalerie Bikes (All of them are smaller brands, but they do make legit mountainbikes)  ...

Got some more for your list:

Actofive

Sour

Crossworx

Kavenz

Rose

Cavalerie Bikes

(All of them are smaller brands, but they do make legit mountainbikes)

 

Edit: Just realized you already had Kavenz and Rose

Wanted to add crossworx and acto5.

1
1/13/2024 10:52am

and yet somehow, Ellsworth is still in business. 

You say that, but I don't believe they've released a new model since 2018. I'm not convinced Ellsworth hasn't become some sort of elaborate tax dodge for Tony and chums to funnel money through and 'lose,' in the process.

2
1/13/2024 5:09pm

Companies across the cycling market from LBS, to component manufacturers, and all the way to bike companies will continue to go under throughout 2024 and likely into 2025 unless demand picks up in spring 2024.

We have only started to see the beginning of the closures. 

 

6
sspomer
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1/16/2024 10:03am

price of headset cable routing parts must be going up!

17
jonkranked
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1/17/2024 3:57pm
Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins...

Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News

Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins for a major player like scott.

scott sports isn't just cycling. it also encompasses the winter / ski brand, and they make running and moto apparel as well.

3
1/17/2024 4:24pm
Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins...

Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News

Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins for a major player like scott.

The filing also disclosed that Scott Sports made a profit of $35.8 million in 2022 on sales of $628 million and profit of $23.2 million in 2021 on sales of $695 million.

5.7% and 3.3% margin for '21 and '22 which from talking to friends employed at Trek, was an insanely profitable year.

If i had $176 million i definitely wouldn't be loaning it to a company with that margin.

2
1/17/2024 7:31pm

How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to start paying full price again?

3
dolface
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1/18/2024 6:46am
wayneking wrote:
How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to...

How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to start paying full price again?

There's a non-trivial segment of the market that will only buy the newest whatever (not just bikes).

6
Simcik
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1/18/2024 8:45am
wayneking wrote:
How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to...

How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to start paying full price again?

They launch a new product... Discounting is done across all sorts of markets/industries when a product is being discontinued or replaced with a new model. Keep in mind that the big brands are also discounting. The goal being that they sell out of the old model just in time for the new model to launch and keep the revenue stream moving at a growing pace.

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Masjo
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1/18/2024 9:06am

I'm more interested in how the reaction to price increases will go for companies that have had year+ long firesales. It's one thing to discount a product even if it is 40-50% for a bit as that's how most 'sales' work, but how do you justify a price increase when your product has been even just 20% off for over a year?

4
sspomer
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1/18/2024 10:02am

totally agree. when the new uncaged capra came out the other day at $6500 with X0 transmission and ohlins, my initial reaction was "whoa, that's expensive." it's not really expensive, but it's not $4700 like the capra uncaged model being blown out a few weeks ago. def a grab-the-popcorn-and-watch year for the market!

4
chriskief
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1/18/2024 10:18am
sspomer wrote:
totally agree. when the new uncaged capra came out the other day at $6500 with X0 transmission and ohlins, my initial reaction was "whoa, that's expensive."...

totally agree. when the new uncaged capra came out the other day at $6500 with X0 transmission and ohlins, my initial reaction was "whoa, that's expensive." it's not really expensive, but it's not $4700 like the capra uncaged model being blown out a few weeks ago. def a grab-the-popcorn-and-watch year for the market!

Some companies started lowering MSRPs last year... guessing we'll see more of this.

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/we-are-one-reduces-the-price-of-convergen…

https://www.pinkbike.com/news/scor-announces-significant-price-decrease…

(Sorry, couldn't quickly find Vital links)

1
Mwood
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1/18/2024 10:33am
Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins...

Scotts Sports owner Youngone loans company $176 million | Bicycle Retailer and Industry News

Another article that was on pinkbike home page.  Shockingly low profit margins for a major player like scott.

The filing also disclosed that Scott Sports made a profit of $35.8 million in 2022 on sales of $628 million and profit of $23.2 million in 2021...

The filing also disclosed that Scott Sports made a profit of $35.8 million in 2022 on sales of $628 million and profit of $23.2 million in 2021 on sales of $695 million.

5.7% and 3.3% margin for '21 and '22 which from talking to friends employed at Trek, was an insanely profitable year.

If i had $176 million i definitely wouldn't be loaning it to a company with that margin.

If you read up on Youngone, they are partial owners of Scott. There is more in the background to the loan than what the headline appears to be saying. Paging Jeff to the white courtesy telephone to break the business side of this one down... @jeff.brines
 

JVP
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1/18/2024 1:02pm
wayneking wrote:
How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to...

How do all the smaller boutique bike brands that are discounting their products up to 40% (Evil Knolly Revel Ibis Fordibben etc) then convince everyone to start paying full price again?

It's not sustainable, and not just for the small brands. The discounting will stop when the industry as a whole works through their oversupply, and as we're discussing here, many won't survive. 

The bazillion small companies in the space don't help, but the real problem is the discounting that the big players are doing. The whales drive the market and the minnows respond.

3
1/18/2024 1:09pm

The covid boom was just like cash for clunkers- stealing sales from future years to current year. My question is how long will that last? How long is the trough after the peak before prices and demand return to normal, or will another "crisis" arrive first? 

What happens with these firesales if all this older inventory never sells? What do you do with a 2 year old bike that won't sell?

3
1/18/2024 2:07pm
The covid boom was just like cash for clunkers- stealing sales from future years to current year. My question is how long will that last? How...

The covid boom was just like cash for clunkers- stealing sales from future years to current year. My question is how long will that last? How long is the trough after the peak before prices and demand return to normal, or will another "crisis" arrive first? 

What happens with these firesales if all this older inventory never sells? What do you do with a 2 year old bike that won't sell?

trash them.

Happens in lots of industries. The only issue is that the brands incredibly foolishly sunk too much into inventory. Normally you just absorb the loss of a bad year from profit of the good years (21 & 22) but the issue is the losses from 23 eclipse any profit from 21 and 22 combined.

The finance teams just totally cocked it up, and nobody questioned the fact that MTB (and bikes overall) hasn't actually exploded in terms of usage, people just bought new bikes, but they aren't going to buy new bikes every 2 years lol.

7
1/19/2024 1:24am
trash them. Happens in lots of industries. The only issue is that the brands incredibly foolishly sunk too much into inventory. Normally you just absorb the...

trash them.

Happens in lots of industries. The only issue is that the brands incredibly foolishly sunk too much into inventory. Normally you just absorb the loss of a bad year from profit of the good years (21 & 22) but the issue is the losses from 23 eclipse any profit from 21 and 22 combined.

The finance teams just totally cocked it up, and nobody questioned the fact that MTB (and bikes overall) hasn't actually exploded in terms of usage, people just bought new bikes, but they aren't going to buy new bikes every 2 years lol.

I guess this depends on where you are on the world. Down here in NZ the usage has increased big time. Trail and park numbers are up substantially and that’s maintained since the boom, but you’re right that it brought sales forward and these riders aren’t buying consumables (including clothing, protection, etc.) at the same rate the core users were before.

it wasn’t just the finance teams that got it wrong, it was EVERY part of the supply chain, retailers back to part makers, and now it’s the factories in Asia who are wearing the worst of the wests mistakes.

anyone know if Pembree is still operating? I’ve been after a seat post clamp and stem for ages but they’re out of stock on common sizes and colours.

2
Breanainn
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reno, NV US
1/19/2024 3:59pm

Did anyone bid and win in the Eminent cycles auction? Curious about the experience buying from the auction house. Seemed kinda like a maze to figure it all out.

1
PisgahGnar
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1/20/2024 5:29pm Edited Date/Time 1/20/2024 5:32pm

Factor Components. Everything is out of stock on their site, other sites have very limited stock, and I’ve heard the staff are non responsive. Does anyone know what’s up? 

PeteB
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1/20/2024 6:57pm
Breanainn wrote:
Did anyone bid and win in the Eminent cycles auction? Curious about the experience buying from the auction house. Seemed kinda like a maze to figure...

Did anyone bid and win in the Eminent cycles auction? Curious about the experience buying from the auction house. Seemed kinda like a maze to figure it all out.

I heard that many auction items disappeared between action close/payment settling and pickup the next day, sounded like a total nightmare from my source

1

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