Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

4/18/2024 9:47am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more similar. Like cars.

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dolface
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4/18/2024 10:23am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

isack wrote:

Where did the list go? We should start naming bike brands one at a time again.

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TayRob
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4/18/2024 10:31am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more...

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more similar. Like cars.

Aren’t we already there?

How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really need that all fall within the same 5% of leverage and progression rate?

5
HexonJuan
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4/18/2024 10:50am
chacou wrote:
Sent Kona a message through the website help on January 6, 2024 after purchasing a used Honzo frame simply asking, "Will the DROPOUT CC-142 and CNOAXR01...

Sent Kona a message through the website help on January 6, 2024 after purchasing a used Honzo frame simply asking,

"Will the DROPOUT CC-142 and CNOAXR01 fit a 2023 Honzo ESD?"

I got a confirmation email that my message was sent,

"We've received your message..."

however there's nobody on the other end, I still haven't gotten a response from Kona. I have solved the question on my own and moved on.

Kona RIP.

*the Honzo ESD rips though, and is chromoly, so local repairs if needed

LePigPen wrote:
Had a similar experience. With a CS request about brand new bike. Eventually got through and the communication didn't go well.Kind of a bummer as a...

Had a similar experience. With a CS request about brand new bike. Eventually got through and the communication didn't go well.Kind of a bummer as a Kona fan/customer.

TBF, even back pre C19 Kona's CS/TS was, how you say, 'interesting' in its professionalism. Forgot the guy's name but he was far less than accommodating. A couple interactions was all it took to decide I'd rather waste time hunting parts down on their poorly designed and referenced website than ask for him to do his job. 

2
4/18/2024 10:56am
I think it's sad to hear about both.  However when times are tuff, Pole's owner being an abrasive a-hole to people on line surerly hurt their...

I think it's sad to hear about both. 

However when times are tuff, Pole's owner being an abrasive a-hole to people on line surerly hurt their sales a bit and jeopardized their future. It often comes down to such small margins to continue through the rough patch, if they sold 5% more maybe they'd be around still. Maybe yelling at people and arguing that it's their fault the frame broke was the straw that broke them. 

Interesting how some companies are really gearing up with expensive frames (different CS lengths for each size) and others are exit stage left. 

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Ksilvey10
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4/18/2024 11:18am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

isack wrote:

Where did the list go? We should start naming bike brands one at a time again.

Ksilvey10
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4/18/2024 11:28am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

isack wrote:

Where did the list go? We should start naming bike brands one at a time again.

Here is a list narrowed down but still well over 100

https://docs.google.com/document/d/e/2PACX-1vQNLSoxqC8yH5fW8VACzBlSFAMs…

dolface
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4/18/2024 11:40am

Heard from a credible source that Kona is done. Employees told today, PR tomorrow. RIP

(Small chance a buyer will step in but not holding my breath).

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SteveClimber
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4/18/2024 11:42am
Ksilvey10 wrote:
To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are...

To everyone thinking we will be down to 5 brands, we could lose 70 more and still have 100 full-suspension frame builders out there. There are too many companies slicing the pie. That's the problem. 

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more...

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more similar. Like cars.

TayRob wrote:
Aren’t we already there? How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really...

Aren’t we already there?

How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really need that all fall within the same 5% of leverage and progression rate?

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different. 

Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there is a huge diversity as their premium products people differentiate themselves with. 

Bikes are the same. We don't all want to ride the Toyota corolla of the mountain bike world. 

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TayRob
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4/18/2024 12:24pm
Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more...

Not 5 brands, but 5-ish parent corporations who own all the major brands. They market them towards different consumers, but the bikes become more and more similar. Like cars.

TayRob wrote:
Aren’t we already there? How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really...

Aren’t we already there?

How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really need that all fall within the same 5% of leverage and progression rate?

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different.  Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there...

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different. 

Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there is a huge diversity as their premium products people differentiate themselves with. 

Bikes are the same. We don't all want to ride the Toyota corolla of the mountain bike world. 

Maybe I’m backwards, but if we’re talking cars and bikes here, I’d rather take a page out of history’s books, than look to the future. I currently daily drive a manual transmission 2010 Honda Fit. It’s hands down the best car I’ve ever owned, even when compared to the brand new Subarus and Toyotas I’ve owned in the past. The build quality is stellar, parts are cheap, and there’s not a Bluetooth this or giant TV screen that anywhere in it. If a somewhat reputable manufacturer could make a cloth interior, hand crank windows bare bones commuter car for like, $15k-ish, I’d be all about it. I feel the same way about bikes right now. I don’t want carbon everywhere with every bolt and bearing to be adjustable in length or angle and all the cables hidden. Just give me simple and don’t make me pay a premium for it because you’ve complicated every other bike on the market.

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HexonJuan
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4/18/2024 12:35pm

Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've seen one 'round my parts, and even then those were pre2020 models. Can't recollect seeing a modern one on any of my MTB trips over the last decade. 

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matmattmatthew
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4/18/2024 1:11pm
TayRob wrote:
Aren’t we already there? How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really...

Aren’t we already there?

How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really need that all fall within the same 5% of leverage and progression rate?

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different.  Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there...

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different. 

Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there is a huge diversity as their premium products people differentiate themselves with. 

Bikes are the same. We don't all want to ride the Toyota corolla of the mountain bike world. 

TayRob wrote:
Maybe I’m backwards, but if we’re talking cars and bikes here, I’d rather take a page out of history’s books, than look to the future. I...

Maybe I’m backwards, but if we’re talking cars and bikes here, I’d rather take a page out of history’s books, than look to the future. I currently daily drive a manual transmission 2010 Honda Fit. It’s hands down the best car I’ve ever owned, even when compared to the brand new Subarus and Toyotas I’ve owned in the past. The build quality is stellar, parts are cheap, and there’s not a Bluetooth this or giant TV screen that anywhere in it. If a somewhat reputable manufacturer could make a cloth interior, hand crank windows bare bones commuter car for like, $15k-ish, I’d be all about it. I feel the same way about bikes right now. I don’t want carbon everywhere with every bolt and bearing to be adjustable in length or angle and all the cables hidden. Just give me simple and don’t make me pay a premium for it because you’ve complicated every other bike on the market.

This is exactly why I've gone from riding super complicated FS carbon trail bikes to a steel singlespeed hardtail.  I still have fancy bikes but my SS gets ridden the most.  

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SteveClimber
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4/18/2024 1:28pm Edited Date/Time 4/18/2024 1:32pm
TayRob wrote:
Aren’t we already there? How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really...

Aren’t we already there?

How many more bikes with a 64 degree head tube angle, 76 degree seat tube angle and 435mm chainstays do we really need that all fall within the same 5% of leverage and progression rate?

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different.  Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there...

Yeah but this one comes in blue, and looks slightly different. 

Let's be honest, cars for their intended purposes are all functionally the same, but there is a huge diversity as their premium products people differentiate themselves with. 

Bikes are the same. We don't all want to ride the Toyota corolla of the mountain bike world. 

TayRob wrote:
Maybe I’m backwards, but if we’re talking cars and bikes here, I’d rather take a page out of history’s books, than look to the future. I...

Maybe I’m backwards, but if we’re talking cars and bikes here, I’d rather take a page out of history’s books, than look to the future. I currently daily drive a manual transmission 2010 Honda Fit. It’s hands down the best car I’ve ever owned, even when compared to the brand new Subarus and Toyotas I’ve owned in the past. The build quality is stellar, parts are cheap, and there’s not a Bluetooth this or giant TV screen that anywhere in it. If a somewhat reputable manufacturer could make a cloth interior, hand crank windows bare bones commuter car for like, $15k-ish, I’d be all about it. I feel the same way about bikes right now. I don’t want carbon everywhere with every bolt and bearing to be adjustable in length or angle and all the cables hidden. Just give me simple and don’t make me pay a premium for it because you’ve complicated every other bike on the market.

Unfortunately your tastes just don't align with majority. It's not that you wrong, or they're wrong. But they design and market for maximum sales/profit. People prefer internal cables, carbon etc etc etc.

Just like people prefer "clean" aesthetics and easy to use cars, over well made simple machines that are easily servicable. 

 

Re: Niner, so many brands seem on the fringe. How often do you see an Alchemy or a Revel

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airwreck
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4/18/2024 1:48pm
jonkranked wrote:
out of curiosity i went to Kona's website to see what they have in-stock (since they are now consumer direct).  none of the full suspension bikes...

out of curiosity i went to Kona's website to see what they have in-stock (since they are now consumer direct).  none of the full suspension bikes were in stock, only hardtails and non-mtbs.  although this jives with the rumored new process line coming. 

Looks like Cambria has a bunch of frames, including 26" carbon Operators.

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brash
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4/18/2024 2:47pm
boozed wrote:
The inaugural Sea Otter Australia was scheduled for 2019 but was delayed several times by COVID lockdowns and travel restrictions, then an inability to secure a...

The inaugural Sea Otter Australia was scheduled for 2019 but was delayed several times by COVID lockdowns and travel restrictions, then an inability to secure a venue, so now it's 2025 and on the NSW south coast of all places.  Lovely part of the world but not trivial to get to.  Will there be anyone other than the big three left who can afford to travel all the way over here for a trade show by then?

When you said south Coast I assumed Narooma or something like that, but when I looked it up and saw Mogo I nearly choked on my vegimite toast. Where the f&*k are people gonna stay? Batemans bay and drive in? Atleast the trails will be finished by then.

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Mas
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4/18/2024 8:56pm
HexonJuan wrote:
Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've...

Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've seen one 'round my parts, and even then those were pre2020 models. Can't recollect seeing a modern one on any of my MTB trips over the last decade. 

Some companies realized the boom was a boom and didn't triple their staff, open boutique stores, and expand their lineup to infinity.

They also aren't sponsoring many slopestyle riders. 

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Verbl Kint
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4/18/2024 11:08pm

I really hope Kona and Pole are the last of the bankruptcies. 

 

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Glory831Guy
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4/18/2024 11:36pm
HexonJuan wrote:
Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've...

Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've seen one 'round my parts, and even then those were pre2020 models. Can't recollect seeing a modern one on any of my MTB trips over the last decade. 

Look at their seat tube angles, that should give you a clue...Blink

HexonJuan
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4/19/2024 6:14am
HexonJuan wrote:
Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've...

Maybe this was wondered over on another page on this thread, but how is it that Niner is still around? Been a long time since I've seen one 'round my parts, and even then those were pre2020 models. Can't recollect seeing a modern one on any of my MTB trips over the last decade. 

Mas wrote:
Some companies realized the boom was a boom and didn't triple their staff, open boutique stores, and expand their lineup to infinity. They also aren't sponsoring...

Some companies realized the boom was a boom and didn't triple their staff, open boutique stores, and expand their lineup to infinity.

They also aren't sponsoring many slopestyle riders. 

Fair enough, but I found it weird that I had seen more Emminents (2) compared to Niners (0) in the last couple years. 

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dolface
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4/19/2024 7:57am

From the NSMB article:

"While we await official word from Kent, we've heard from multiple sources that Kent told Kona employees this morning that they were "winding the brand down". What that means in the short term is unclear (although evidently Kent will attempt to find at least some employees homes at other portfolio companies, if they so choose)."

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4/19/2024 8:02am

I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here...

Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like they couldn't. Between certain areas they work in being hit hard by covid and a factory fire, the options were limited. And, when you factor in approximately 18 months to build a new factory and get get it up and running, maybe they were the only company in the industry to understand the boom wouldn't last.

Trek.. Their "right sizing" the company via SKU reduction tells me that they feel that what they have already committed to for 2024 and 2025 will carry them through 2026.. They don't seem to be optimistic about the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what 2027 and 2028 looks like..

Right now, I see some of these smaller frame only companies having an edge.. They aren't committed to large orders that they have to place 12+ months in advance with Taiwan. Plus, they don't have a large staff to pay and a lot of them have a loyal core base. 

Mid sized companies like Kona are probably most at risk. They make to play in the same pool as the big 3, but they don't have the financials to compete.. BOGO on bikes?? Talk about a big liquidation move..

I suspect more craziness over the next year or 2.. Back to filling out job applications..

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Batts
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4/19/2024 9:25am

I had always put Kona and Transition in the same category years ago, both cool companies but their bikes never really did anything for me.  Then Transition started really innovating and changed their suspension to the horst link.  Since then I am on my 4th Transition.  The Process turned heads and was a good looking bike but really was a Kona.  

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4/19/2024 9:54am
Batts wrote:
I had always put Kona and Transition in the same category years ago, both cool companies but their bikes never really did anything for me.  Then...

I had always put Kona and Transition in the same category years ago, both cool companies but their bikes never really did anything for me.  Then Transition started really innovating and changed their suspension to the horst link.  Since then I am on my 4th Transition.  The Process turned heads and was a good looking bike but really was a Kona.  

I've been a bit of a Transition fan for a while..  One thing thing that seems to have served them well is sticking to what they know or like.. I remember Kona coming out with entry level bikes and hybrids a while back and the value compared to Giant or Specialized just wasn't there..

Transition seems to be following more of the Santa Cruz game plan..

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jonkranked
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4/19/2024 10:24am
I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here... Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like...

I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here...

Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like they couldn't. Between certain areas they work in being hit hard by covid and a factory fire, the options were limited. And, when you factor in approximately 18 months to build a new factory and get get it up and running, maybe they were the only company in the industry to understand the boom wouldn't last.

Trek.. Their "right sizing" the company via SKU reduction tells me that they feel that what they have already committed to for 2024 and 2025 will carry them through 2026.. They don't seem to be optimistic about the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what 2027 and 2028 looks like..

Right now, I see some of these smaller frame only companies having an edge.. They aren't committed to large orders that they have to place 12+ months in advance with Taiwan. Plus, they don't have a large staff to pay and a lot of them have a loyal core base. 

Mid sized companies like Kona are probably most at risk. They make to play in the same pool as the big 3, but they don't have the financials to compete.. BOGO on bikes?? Talk about a big liquidation move..

I suspect more craziness over the next year or 2.. Back to filling out job applications..

on shimano - i'd say it was more that they wouldn't expand / ramp up even if they could have (per the issues you mentioned).  i read an article (that i currently can't locate) that essentially stated what you did, that they knew the boom was going to be temporary. 

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louiesquared
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4/19/2024 10:39am

Not a bike manufacturer but still related.

Just got an email stating Planet Cyclery is closing. Up to 30% Off at this point. I would imagine slower moving items will continue to be discounted further as time goes on.

https://planetcyclery.com/

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All-MTN-MTB
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4/19/2024 11:20am
Verbl Kint wrote:

I really hope Kona and Pole are the last of the bankruptcies. 

 

I am very confident that they won’t be as far as general cycling industry companies goes, but I have less certainty about MTB specific brands. 

3
All-MTN-MTB
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4/19/2024 11:23am Edited Date/Time 4/19/2024 12:28pm
I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here... Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like...

I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here...

Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like they couldn't. Between certain areas they work in being hit hard by covid and a factory fire, the options were limited. And, when you factor in approximately 18 months to build a new factory and get get it up and running, maybe they were the only company in the industry to understand the boom wouldn't last.

Trek.. Their "right sizing" the company via SKU reduction tells me that they feel that what they have already committed to for 2024 and 2025 will carry them through 2026.. They don't seem to be optimistic about the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what 2027 and 2028 looks like..

Right now, I see some of these smaller frame only companies having an edge.. They aren't committed to large orders that they have to place 12+ months in advance with Taiwan. Plus, they don't have a large staff to pay and a lot of them have a loyal core base. 

Mid sized companies like Kona are probably most at risk. They make to play in the same pool as the big 3, but they don't have the financials to compete.. BOGO on bikes?? Talk about a big liquidation move..

I suspect more craziness over the next year or 2.. Back to filling out job applications..

I’ve heard rumors that Trek’s eliminated skus correlate to products they were sourcing from Giant owned companies (who they owe a shit ton of money to apparently).

1
4/19/2024 12:20pm
I’ve heard rumors that Trek’s eliminated skus correlate to products they were sourcing from Giant owned companies (who they owe a shit ton of money to...

I’ve heard rumors that Trek’s eliminated skus correlate to products they were sourcing from Giant owned companies (who they owe a shit ton of money to apparently).

That could be the case... I do know that I had seen some Trek models coming from places other than Taiwan.. We'll have to wait a bit to see where the cuts are made..

boozed
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4/19/2024 7:21pm Edited Date/Time 4/19/2024 9:13pm
I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here... Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like...

I wish I had seen this earlier... Good discussion here...

Regarding Shimano, I don't think that they decided to not ramp up production, but more like they couldn't. Between certain areas they work in being hit hard by covid and a factory fire, the options were limited. And, when you factor in approximately 18 months to build a new factory and get get it up and running, maybe they were the only company in the industry to understand the boom wouldn't last.

Trek.. Their "right sizing" the company via SKU reduction tells me that they feel that what they have already committed to for 2024 and 2025 will carry them through 2026.. They don't seem to be optimistic about the next couple of years. It will be interesting to see what 2027 and 2028 looks like..

Right now, I see some of these smaller frame only companies having an edge.. They aren't committed to large orders that they have to place 12+ months in advance with Taiwan. Plus, they don't have a large staff to pay and a lot of them have a loyal core base. 

Mid sized companies like Kona are probably most at risk. They make to play in the same pool as the big 3, but they don't have the financials to compete.. BOGO on bikes?? Talk about a big liquidation move..

I suspect more craziness over the next year or 2.. Back to filling out job applications..

I’ve heard rumors that Trek’s eliminated skus correlate to products they were sourcing from Giant owned companies (who they owe a shit ton of money to...

I’ve heard rumors that Trek’s eliminated skus correlate to products they were sourcing from Giant owned companies (who they owe a shit ton of money to apparently).

That's an interesting one but how would you rate its veracity?

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