Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?

jeff.brines
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1/29/2025 8:06am Edited Date/Time 1/29/2025 8:10am

doesnt KTM have massive stock though? 

Yeah thats the precise problem. They can't sell the stock they have. The issue is they may be forced to sell the stock at a loss, as...

Yeah thats the precise problem. They can't sell the stock they have. 

The issue is they may be forced to sell the stock at a loss, as it will result in a smaller loss then not selling it at all. Either way it's goodnight for them 

I did a pretty thorough analysis on the company and their options a few months back. You can see what I wrote on my blog here

Since this post, a few major changes have occurred including...

Chapter 11: KTM entered into the European version of Chapter 11. This gave the company 90 days (ending February 25th 2025) to figure out how they might restructure things while the creditors wait on the shores. This is an important "pause" while management figures out what to do. 

Reducing Costs: This one is obvious, but the company has implemented drastic cost-cutting measures which includes layoffs, production cuts, and reducing operating expense. 

Excess Inventory: This is a problem but not "the" problem. To my point, if they sold through all inventory on their balance sheet, all their capital and financing problems still exist. 

Divesting in Non Core Assets: While it hasn't happened, the company is exploring the sale of Felt and X-Bow. 

Debt Restructuring: This is the big one. They need to figure out how to pay back 30% of their debt in 2 years to avert insolvency. Looks like creditors are aiming to claw back more than that 30% number and employees have been stiffed to the tune of $12M. LAME KTM. 

New Capital: The company has received new capital injections from existing investors. I honestly didn't look to see how much and if this has gone through, but the big important thing here is the current investors have the means and they appear interested in keeping the company afloat. A quick glance appeared that this was in the form of convertible debt, which is a good instrument for both parties IMO, but I didn't go deep. 

New Management: There is a new CEO (or co-CEO) in place through this period. 

What I expect to see happen here is either someone completely takes them out, and they go private with entirely new owners or they are able to actually make arrangements to continue chipping away and making the existing corporate structure work. What I would expect is a different KTM to emerge out of this. As to what that looks like, I'll let y'all speculate, but I know what I'd do if they hired me as a consultant. This is a perfect fit for my background in finance, technology, CFOing, operations and "two wheeled fun". 

On that note, if anyone knows anyone at KTM management, give them my contact Wink  


PS - One other thing we might see is deep discounts on 2024 KTM motorcycles that still haven't sold (and 25s). Those interested, keep your eyes peeled - I know they were discounted heavily in the fall, and I don't see this letting up. 

PPS - i don't expect to see KTM go away. 

 

10
1/29/2025 8:37am

doesnt KTM have massive stock though? 

Yeah thats the precise problem. They can't sell the stock they have. The issue is they may be forced to sell the stock at a loss, as...

Yeah thats the precise problem. They can't sell the stock they have. 

The issue is they may be forced to sell the stock at a loss, as it will result in a smaller loss then not selling it at all. Either way it's goodnight for them 

I did a pretty thorough analysis on the company and their options a few months back. You can see what I wrote on my blog here...

I did a pretty thorough analysis on the company and their options a few months back. You can see what I wrote on my blog here

Since this post, a few major changes have occurred including...

Chapter 11: KTM entered into the European version of Chapter 11. This gave the company 90 days (ending February 25th 2025) to figure out how they might restructure things while the creditors wait on the shores. This is an important "pause" while management figures out what to do. 

Reducing Costs: This one is obvious, but the company has implemented drastic cost-cutting measures which includes layoffs, production cuts, and reducing operating expense. 

Excess Inventory: This is a problem but not "the" problem. To my point, if they sold through all inventory on their balance sheet, all their capital and financing problems still exist. 

Divesting in Non Core Assets: While it hasn't happened, the company is exploring the sale of Felt and X-Bow. 

Debt Restructuring: This is the big one. They need to figure out how to pay back 30% of their debt in 2 years to avert insolvency. Looks like creditors are aiming to claw back more than that 30% number and employees have been stiffed to the tune of $12M. LAME KTM. 

New Capital: The company has received new capital injections from existing investors. I honestly didn't look to see how much and if this has gone through, but the big important thing here is the current investors have the means and they appear interested in keeping the company afloat. A quick glance appeared that this was in the form of convertible debt, which is a good instrument for both parties IMO, but I didn't go deep. 

New Management: There is a new CEO (or co-CEO) in place through this period. 

What I expect to see happen here is either someone completely takes them out, and they go private with entirely new owners or they are able to actually make arrangements to continue chipping away and making the existing corporate structure work. What I would expect is a different KTM to emerge out of this. As to what that looks like, I'll let y'all speculate, but I know what I'd do if they hired me as a consultant. This is a perfect fit for my background in finance, technology, CFOing, operations and "two wheeled fun". 

On that note, if anyone knows anyone at KTM management, give them my contact Wink  


PS - One other thing we might see is deep discounts on 2024 KTM motorcycles that still haven't sold (and 25s). Those interested, keep your eyes peeled - I know they were discounted heavily in the fall, and I don't see this letting up. 

PPS - i don't expect to see KTM go away. 

 

The deep discounting started on leftover '23 models in early '24, at least in my area. One of the local dealers had 250 and 300 XCWs for like $2,500-$3,000 off MSRP. Just checked their inventory and it looks like they moved most of their '24 models. The few they have remaining all say "call for price" so they really must be ready to wheel and deal on those. Too bad it's nothing I want! Should have scooped up a 300 when I had the chance. 

1
Simcik
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1/29/2025 9:24am
The deep discounting started on leftover '23 models in early '24, at least in my area. One of the local dealers had 250 and 300 XCWs...

The deep discounting started on leftover '23 models in early '24, at least in my area. One of the local dealers had 250 and 300 XCWs for like $2,500-$3,000 off MSRP. Just checked their inventory and it looks like they moved most of their '24 models. The few they have remaining all say "call for price" so they really must be ready to wheel and deal on those. Too bad it's nothing I want! Should have scooped up a 300 when I had the chance. 

I am sure there will be more 300 XC and XCW models going on closeout. It still remains a really good time to buy a new KTM, but a crap time to sell a new or used one. I am keeping my 350 and 300 for a long time

I don't think KTM is going anywhere, but it will be changing a lot. I think I saw that minority owner Bajaj is putting in an offer to buy the majority stake. Bajaj has been building quite a few of KTMs models like the Duke and such if I understand properly. 

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jeff.brines
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1/29/2025 9:32am
The deep discounting started on leftover '23 models in early '24, at least in my area. One of the local dealers had 250 and 300 XCWs...

The deep discounting started on leftover '23 models in early '24, at least in my area. One of the local dealers had 250 and 300 XCWs for like $2,500-$3,000 off MSRP. Just checked their inventory and it looks like they moved most of their '24 models. The few they have remaining all say "call for price" so they really must be ready to wheel and deal on those. Too bad it's nothing I want! Should have scooped up a 300 when I had the chance. 

Simcik wrote:
I am sure there will be more 300 XC and XCW models going on closeout. It still remains a really good time to buy a new...

I am sure there will be more 300 XC and XCW models going on closeout. It still remains a really good time to buy a new KTM, but a crap time to sell a new or used one. I am keeping my 350 and 300 for a long time

I don't think KTM is going anywhere, but it will be changing a lot. I think I saw that minority owner Bajaj is putting in an offer to buy the majority stake. Bajaj has been building quite a few of KTMs models like the Duke and such if I understand properly. 

Where do you see Bajaj putting in an offer to buy a majority interest in the company? I don't see this. 

I do agree the KTM we knew is going to change substantially with respect to capex, racing, model releases etc. They honestly made a lot (lot) of bad mistakes while seemingly forgetting how they really make money and where their real strengths lie. 

1
1/29/2025 10:58am Edited Date/Time 1/29/2025 11:00am

It seems to me their facing the same issues as the bicycle industry only on a scale that is orders of magnitude bigger. Ramp up production during Covid time, average Joe who’s had his eye on a moto finally gets the ok from the Mrs to buy one, guys that didn’t get one during that time were either not on a financial footing to be able to or weren’t ever going to… 

I would also venture to guess there are a fair few more motos being sold on credit, and average Joe who bought his during that time is either -still happy with it - not riding it since he went back to work - or just now paying the thing off. Rates go up demand goes down, and the company has already dove head first into all time high production. So many moving parts it’s like trying to stop an avalanche. Hindsight being what it is there is no doubt they made their bed 4-5 years ago…

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Simcik
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1/29/2025 11:42am
Where do you see Bajaj putting in an offer to buy a majority interest in the company? I don't see this. I do agree the KTM we...

Where do you see Bajaj putting in an offer to buy a majority interest in the company? I don't see this. 

I do agree the KTM we knew is going to change substantially with respect to capex, racing, model releases etc. They honestly made a lot (lot) of bad mistakes while seemingly forgetting how they really make money and where their real strengths lie. 

DID THE WHEELS COME OFF THE KTM DEAL? - Dealernews

Maybe I read the article incorrectly

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jeff.brines
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1/29/2025 4:26pm
Simcik wrote:

DID THE WHEELS COME OFF THE KTM DEAL? - Dealernews

Maybe I read the article incorrectly

Terrible journalism work here. They grabbed what is on the IR page from the company, which is to be trusted. However, as far as Bajaj taking over, that seems entirely speculative. I have looked high and low and see no indication this is in fact happening. Doesn't mean it won't, but I'd put that firmly in the "rumor" category right now.

5
Simcik
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1/30/2025 6:09am
Simcik wrote:

DID THE WHEELS COME OFF THE KTM DEAL? - Dealernews

Maybe I read the article incorrectly

Terrible journalism work here. They grabbed what is on the IR page from the company, which is to be trusted. However, as far as Bajaj taking...

Terrible journalism work here. They grabbed what is on the IR page from the company, which is to be trusted. However, as far as Bajaj taking over, that seems entirely speculative. I have looked high and low and see no indication this is in fact happening. Doesn't mean it won't, but I'd put that firmly in the "rumor" category right now.

Yeah, I took the article at face value. Then when you asked where it came from, I did a simple search for more info or corroboration and found nothing. I think at best it is a rumor at this time. 

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jonkranked
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1/30/2025 7:33am

"More new releases are in the pipeline for 2025"

reading between the lines of this statement and the recent launch of the rfx36m3, i'm presuming some of their other forks will be getting the m3 treatment as well.

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Suns_PSD
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1/30/2025 8:00am

KTM isn't going anywhere.

KTM USA is a separate, and profitable business. But beyond that the brand name has incredible equity. Someone will absolutely be building and selling KTMs into the future.

Saying KTM will be gone is like saying GM will be gone after they filed BK in '99. Ain't going to happen.

1
jeff.brines
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1/30/2025 8:04am
Suns_PSD wrote:
KTM isn't going anywhere.KTM USA is a separate, and profitable business. But beyond that the brand name has incredible equity. Someone will absolutely be building and...

KTM isn't going anywhere.

KTM USA is a separate, and profitable business. But beyond that the brand name has incredible equity. Someone will absolutely be building and selling KTMs into the future.

Saying KTM will be gone is like saying GM will be gone after they filed BK in '99. Ain't going to happen.

KTM USA may be a seperate subsidiary but they are fully reliant on Peirer Mobility to operate. While I agree its unlikely KTM does in fact "go away", I've watched enough of these restructuring/bankrupty/insolvency events to know its unlikely the KTM that emerges out of this is the "same" KTM. Now, to counter what I just said, its unlikely any buyer or any change torches all the IP and underlying DNA of the bikes, but the rate of change, emphasis on racing (at a high dollar amount) etc may in fact change. 

You might see KTM do something more akin to the other moto companies where they amortize their vehicle costs across longer periods of time. I don't think we can overlook the RMATV/Tusk effect on the business model, either. KTM is not able to monetize the aftermarket/parts side like the once were able to...

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earleb
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1/30/2025 8:07am

How is Yeti doing? Seems they would have had some marketing out ahead of the UCI rider info if things were going well. 

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1
1/30/2025 11:03am Edited Date/Time 1/30/2025 12:21pm
earleb wrote:

How is Yeti doing? Seems they would have had some marketing out ahead of the UCI rider info if things were going well. 

When I was demoing a bike at the factory in Golden, Colorado (more of a size fit check) November 1st of 2024, all of their assembly stations except one were staffed and they were looking to hire a mechanic immediately to fill that empty station. Plus the offices near the front had staff and a few staff in the showroom to sort out demo ride folks.

I don't know what that says other than in November they weren't panicking about the number of folks on payroll. They're currently still selling all their newest model year stuff at full price. They had the last of the previous year's colors at a discount (which is how I got my sb120...no way would I pay their full asking price even if it's the nicest bike I've ridden) but all of the current stuff is at full price.

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Stewyeww
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1/30/2025 12:09pm
Suns_PSD wrote:
KTM isn't going anywhere.KTM USA is a separate, and profitable business. But beyond that the brand name has incredible equity. Someone will absolutely be building and...

KTM isn't going anywhere.

KTM USA is a separate, and profitable business. But beyond that the brand name has incredible equity. Someone will absolutely be building and selling KTMs into the future.

Saying KTM will be gone is like saying GM will be gone after they filed BK in '99. Ain't going to happen.

KTM USA may be a seperate subsidiary but they are fully reliant on Peirer Mobility to operate. While I agree its unlikely KTM does in fact...

KTM USA may be a seperate subsidiary but they are fully reliant on Peirer Mobility to operate. While I agree its unlikely KTM does in fact "go away", I've watched enough of these restructuring/bankrupty/insolvency events to know its unlikely the KTM that emerges out of this is the "same" KTM. Now, to counter what I just said, its unlikely any buyer or any change torches all the IP and underlying DNA of the bikes, but the rate of change, emphasis on racing (at a high dollar amount) etc may in fact change. 

You might see KTM do something more akin to the other moto companies where they amortize their vehicle costs across longer periods of time. I don't think we can overlook the RMATV/Tusk effect on the business model, either. KTM is not able to monetize the aftermarket/parts side like the once were able to...

KTM isn't going anywhere but what continent they will be manufactured on remains a question.

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casey79
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1/31/2025 1:22pm
earleb wrote:

How is Yeti doing? Seems they would have had some marketing out ahead of the UCI rider info if things were going well. 

A bunch of teams including Atherton, Mondraker, Pivot, Dunbar etc got caught out by the UCI rider rankings being updated on the 28th so I wouldn’t read anything into it. 

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2/2/2025 12:45pm

Well the tariffs are coming. 

Good luck to DaVinci, Norco, Transition etc, brands that do a lot of cross border sales. 

 

I wonder since a lot of the frames are made in Taiwan and shipped from Taiwan they won't be tariffed.

Unfortunately products like Vorsprungs new shock will now be 25% more expensive for Americans. 

4
sweaman22
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2/2/2025 5:11pm

I spent a bit of time idly looking into this today and some tax lawyers are going to be very busy...

I think the biggest initial headache is including these in whatever accounting system brands are using... It's not a small task on either side of the border. And when does the tariff get collected? Presumably as the product crosses the border?

Canada already has import tariffs on bikes which are lower for frames / components than complete so Taiwan direct or via the USA probably didn't make much difference until today. (Don't know what USA tariffs on bikes from Taiwan might be)

Normal bikes don't appear to be included in the first Canadian tranche but ebikes might be depending on exactly how you interpret electric motorcycle including assistance. (Tariff 8711.60.00 in the schedule).

I don't know which companies have them but those with warehouses on both sides of the border are clearly advantaged. Those with only Canada are clearly now disadvantaged for selling to the USA and tbd for those selling North.

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2/2/2025 6:26pm
sweaman22 wrote:
I spent a bit of time idly looking into this today and some tax lawyers are going to be very busy...I think the biggest initial headache...

I spent a bit of time idly looking into this today and some tax lawyers are going to be very busy...

I think the biggest initial headache is including these in whatever accounting system brands are using... It's not a small task on either side of the border. And when does the tariff get collected? Presumably as the product crosses the border?

Canada already has import tariffs on bikes which are lower for frames / components than complete so Taiwan direct or via the USA probably didn't make much difference until today. (Don't know what USA tariffs on bikes from Taiwan might be)

Normal bikes don't appear to be included in the first Canadian tranche but ebikes might be depending on exactly how you interpret electric motorcycle including assistance. (Tariff 8711.60.00 in the schedule).

I don't know which companies have them but those with warehouses on both sides of the border are clearly advantaged. Those with only Canada are clearly now disadvantaged for selling to the USA and tbd for those selling North.

Kona is the only one that comes to mind with offices and warehouses in both countries unless they closed the North Van office down

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1llumA
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2/2/2025 7:40pm

Usually complete bikes are under 8712 HS codes and bikes parts are under 8714 HS codes.

Low end bikes were already mostly made in south east countries (Vietnam, Cambodia, Thailand) or their production were moved there under Trump first term tariffs on China. If the Chinese parts of the Trumps Tariff are looking to be long term, that might push more brand to move production and final assembly from China to mostly Vietnam.

For bikes price in Canada, it should mostly affect a limited amount of brand that actually do their final assembly in the USA like Ibis & Santa Cruz. For Santa Cruz, they could use their German assembly line to supply Canadian dealers but that would mean higher shipping cost and lead time. 

Most other brands either have warehouse or distributor in Canada so not much will change for Canadian dealers.

And I don't think that Canadian made Devinci, Chromag have that much market share in the USA. 

And since Alberta oils export to the USA will be still be hit by a 10% tariff that means that gas price will most likely rise in the USA so shipping cost will rise and consequently cost of goods across the board for USA, regardless of where it is produced, will go up.

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metadave
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2/2/2025 9:19pm

Specialized just closed their Canadian offices and I'm not sure if they'll be shipping from the US or if they kept the warehouse open. Trek ships from 3 US warehouses to Canada. 

 

1000000130
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Jotegr
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2/3/2025 8:16am

If this is ongoing I wonder if Trek will start warehousing in Canada or partner with a company that's warehousing in Canada. Their stuff isn't "Made in USA" anymore, at best they're painted there (P1), Trek's shown strong supply chain management over COVID so I'm sure they could figure something out. Whether or not they bother is another question - a Trek suit once told me in ~2018 they sell more bikes dollar for dollar on the Trek credit card than all of the Canadian market. 

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pinkrobe
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2/3/2025 8:46am
metadave wrote:
Specialized just closed their Canadian offices and I'm not sure if they'll be shipping from the US or if they kept the warehouse open. Trek ships...

Specialized just closed their Canadian offices and I'm not sure if they'll be shipping from the US or if they kept the warehouse open. Trek ships from 3 US warehouses to Canada. 

 

1000000130

The office/warehouse in MTL shuttered? Is there a known cause?

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sspomer
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2/3/2025 8:57am

interesting pull from the bomb hole podcast (snowboarding) about patagonia's zero profit model. in the full episode they discuss some of the same things we've been talking about here (brands being bought, sold, licensed etc).

3
sprungmass
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2/3/2025 10:45am
Jotegr wrote:
If this is ongoing I wonder if Trek will start warehousing in Canada or partner with a company that's warehousing in Canada. Their stuff isn't "Made...

If this is ongoing I wonder if Trek will start warehousing in Canada or partner with a company that's warehousing in Canada. Their stuff isn't "Made in USA" anymore, at best they're painted there (P1), Trek's shown strong supply chain management over COVID so I'm sure they could figure something out. Whether or not they bother is another question - a Trek suit once told me in ~2018 they sell more bikes dollar for dollar on the Trek credit card than all of the Canadian market. 

Trek is telling the Canadian dealers to stock pile before the tariffs hit. Probably not a good idea considering the general public will be boycotting US brands and the pandemic inventory mess is still pretty fresh.

3
2/3/2025 1:23pm
Jotegr wrote:
If this is ongoing I wonder if Trek will start warehousing in Canada or partner with a company that's warehousing in Canada. Their stuff isn't "Made...

If this is ongoing I wonder if Trek will start warehousing in Canada or partner with a company that's warehousing in Canada. Their stuff isn't "Made in USA" anymore, at best they're painted there (P1), Trek's shown strong supply chain management over COVID so I'm sure they could figure something out. Whether or not they bother is another question - a Trek suit once told me in ~2018 they sell more bikes dollar for dollar on the Trek credit card than all of the Canadian market. 

sprungmass wrote:
Trek is telling the Canadian dealers to stock pile before the tariffs hit. Probably not a good idea considering the general public will be boycotting US...

Trek is telling the Canadian dealers to stock pile before the tariffs hit. Probably not a good idea considering the general public will be boycotting US brands and the pandemic inventory mess is still pretty fresh.

Do Trek still run a dealer model in Canada?
 

Trek in Aus is run by Trek Australia now, they went on a buying spree and bought a whole bunch of established stores and converted them to Trek stores, a few independent Trek sellers are still around still. 

rugbyred
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2/3/2025 1:41pm
metadave wrote:
Specialized just closed their Canadian offices and I'm not sure if they'll be shipping from the US or if they kept the warehouse open. Trek ships...

Specialized just closed their Canadian offices and I'm not sure if they'll be shipping from the US or if they kept the warehouse open. Trek ships from 3 US warehouses to Canada. 

 

1000000130

From someone I know who deals with Specialized in Montreal quite regularly, they are still open. They may have downsized a little but it’s still business as usual 

2
sprungmass
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2/3/2025 2:10pm
Do Trek still run a dealer model in Canada? Trek in Aus is run by Trek Australia now, they went on a buying spree and bought a...

Do Trek still run a dealer model in Canada?
 

Trek in Aus is run by Trek Australia now, they went on a buying spree and bought a whole bunch of established stores and converted them to Trek stores, a few independent Trek sellers are still around still. 

We have a mix of both. In Ontario there are a handful of "Trek Bicycle Stores". Outside that there are shops that have to allocate a certain amount of space for Trek bikes/accessories and some shops that exclusively carry Trek.

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TomJones
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2/3/2025 4:47pm

https://www.bicycleretailer.com/industry-news/2025/01/30/parent-company…

I know this isnt a mountain bike company per se but this speaks directly to the topics of this thread. 

This quote stood out quite a bit to me: "An Illinois Tool Works (ITW) spokesperson confirmed the decision to BRAIN. A JBI spokesperson told BRAIN ITW will concentrate instead on automotive products. Slime and Fix A Flat are included under ITW's Tire Repair group."

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