Hi Jeff, The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.The...
Hi Jeff,
The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.
The split of those 25.049 units sold 1st half 2024 is 47% sold in NA, 46% EU, 7% other.
To the question where all those bikes are? No clue, I rarely ever see one around here as well.
Holy schlamoly. If Felt sold 24k bikes and no one has seen a Felt in the wild…
How many Stumpjumpers have been sold?? The number has to be inconceivably high.
Hi Jeff, The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.The...
Hi Jeff,
The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.
The split of those 25.049 units sold 1st half 2024 is 47% sold in NA, 46% EU, 7% other.
To the question where all those bikes are? No clue, I rarely ever see one around here as well.
Hi Jeff, The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.The...
Hi Jeff,
The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.
The split of those 25.049 units sold 1st half 2024 is 47% sold in NA, 46% EU, 7% other.
To the question where all those bikes are? No clue, I rarely ever see one around here as well.
Hi Jeff, The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.The...
Hi Jeff,
The slide states the North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2024 is up 65% compared to North America bicycle units sold 1st half 2023.
The split of those 25.049 units sold 1st half 2024 is 47% sold in NA, 46% EU, 7% other.
To the question where all those bikes are? No clue, I rarely ever see one around here as well.
Hey biz thread subscribers, I met with Jeff about a month ago for an Inside Line to discuss the current state of things. It was a rad discussion. The podcast and its copy are below. Enjoy! I know I did.
Today we're joined by Jeff Brines, a long-time mountain biker, Litter Mag and Vital MTB fan. He's also educated and versed in finance. He kicked off a forum thread on Vital MTB that asked "Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?" At a year old, the thread has over 100,000 views with nearly 800 replies as news about our industry has broken. We discuss the past and current state of the bicycle industry through his analysis and tools and see if we can figure out where we're headed.
Thank you Vital listeners!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Podcast Contents 0:00 - Intro, who is Jeff and what are we discussing? 6:11 - Why start a Vital MTB forum post about bike companies shutting down? 11:07 - Why did the *money people* think MTB would make them rich during Covid? 17:30 - Is it just greed and ego? 19:55 - Why did bikes stop selling? 23:49 - Why don't brands save money for slow times? 27:54 - Most of the bike industry is privately held 32:52 - Companies that went under, does the investment money just disappear? 38:05 - Original owners buying a company back, Family Office and Private Equity 46:25 - Private equity and how it works 51:54 - Is going bankrupt expected with venture capital investors? 53:51 - The lunacy of VanMoof being worth $500 million 1:04:23 - What does the bike industry future look like? 1:12:41 - Is there any incentive to get into the bike industry now? 1:15:41 - Is there an ideal company size? 1:17:48 - Will the business world repeat the same mistakes 10 years from now? 1:21:31 - Tools to learn about the bike industry 1:26:10 - Vital audience survey
Thx a ton for having me. Post any questions or call outs here (which is totally fair) and I'll respond. Also, apologies for all the rambling. I was...nervous. 😬
Thanks for putting out the podcast! I'm excited to give it a listen bit by bit over the next few days.
Cool timing, too, because I just listened to a podcast yesterday that talks (briefly) about the financial side of a smaller bike company so that got me super curious about the industry as a whole ("hole?") and how financial folk think about at this stuff.
On the Bikes or Death podcast, Tim Krueger - CEO of Esker Cycles and former Product Manager at Salsa Cycles - talked about a million things including Esker's financial situation after the last 5 years of bike industry boom and bust.
In short: they're doing well and can easily point to the reasons why.
That entire Bikes or Death podcast episode was really good, though. I definitely think it's worth the listen!
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the same feeling as the Kona buy one get one deal. When you are giving something away you are solely trying to get it out of inventory and cut your losses before sending it to the dump or a mass auction for pennies on the dollar.
Also funny how when you make totally junk e bikes no one takes them seriously.
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the...
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the same feeling as the Kona buy one get one deal. When you are giving something away you are solely trying to get it out of inventory and cut your losses before sending it to the dump or a mass auction for pennies on the dollar.
Also funny how when you make totally junk e bikes no one takes them seriously.
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer in a parallel market segment. Tradition motorsport customers could be E-curious but need a nudge to try it out. Kona was all about burning inventory, but Gas Gas could be part blowing out inventory and part investment in future market share.
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer...
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer in a parallel market segment. Tradition motorsport customers could be E-curious but need a nudge to try it out. Kona was all about burning inventory, but Gas Gas could be part blowing out inventory and part investment in future market share.
More likely the sinking-rubber-raft than trying out the market. Plenty of MX shops already have had e-bike offerings alongside their respective motorcycle brands.
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer...
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer in a parallel market segment. Tradition motorsport customers could be E-curious but need a nudge to try it out. Kona was all about burning inventory, but Gas Gas could be part blowing out inventory and part investment in future market share.
More likely the sinking-rubber-raft than trying out the market. Plenty of MX shops already have had e-bike offerings alongside their respective motorcycle brands.
In my area MX shops started selling eMTBs during Covid and I guess it was working out at some level considering the very high demand.
All my local MX shops selling ebikes are now stuck with them, some of the GasGas bikes are up to 60% off still not moving that much and the new MXC/ECC models are already on sale.
Dealers are in for some fun times trying to move that GasGas/Husqvarna inventory.
I won't gnarcistically plug my own YouTube channel here but I have had the misfortune of having to break this down across every review I do...
I won't gnarcistically plug my own YouTube channel here but I have had the misfortune of having to break this down across every review I do on the moto side, being almost all of us singletrack/offroad/hard enduro riders are on some KTM variant at this point.
The reality is the difference between brands is so subtle, so tiny, it makes a mountain biker's head spin. We literally have a lot more variation within each model of bike (build kits) than you'll find between GasGas/KTM/Husky for a particular engine size. IE, the big difference is color, the shape of the plastics, rim color, and maybe handlebar/triple clamp material/brake brand. Its so subtle, and so immaterial.
There is literally no upside to all the complexity that comes with explaining to an entire market that yes, they are in fact similar and but no, you don't have the same access to product across all dealers. A total supply chain and dealer network mess.
All I can hypothesize is somebody on the management team came from fashion or luxury goods. Its the only logical explanation. Brand equity alone matters in those world. It carries a significantly lower amount of weight when you are selling anything that is technological at its foundation.
It would seem to make more sense to just offer a bit more customization on KTM's alone. Even just different color plastics, bar heights, or swapping spring rates to match the rider's weight or preference.
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the...
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the same feeling as the Kona buy one get one deal. When you are giving something away you are solely trying to get it out of inventory and cut your losses before sending it to the dump or a mass auction for pennies on the dollar.
Also funny how when you make totally junk e bikes no one takes them seriously.
Ha. I also missed this. The irony is e-bikes are absolutely crushing PMG (parent). They contributed negative (~EUR100M)EBITDA last reporting period (if memory serves) while their motorcycle units were actually net positive on an EBITDA basis.
I have no idea what they'll do with the e-bike unit, but they either need to completely retool on the product management front (I'm available - lol), divest in the unit or flat liquidate and shut it down. Selling subpar bikes into a highly discerning market isn't going to work, clearly.
It would seem to make more sense to just offer a bit more customization on KTM's alone. Even just different color plastics, bar heights, or swapping...
It would seem to make more sense to just offer a bit more customization on KTM's alone. Even just different color plastics, bar heights, or swapping spring rates to match the rider's weight or preference.
I can't help but comment on this one because there are a lot of ways to make the dirt bike buying experience better, but the fact is when we go buy a dirt bike for ~$10K we are getting a lot of product for the money. The business needs to be hyper efficient or they lose their already thin margin. This is exactly my argument as to why GasGas/Husky is a net headwind. Its adding to an already complicated supply chain with little outside of brand equity to show for it.
If a company were to add customization, which others have tried (Beta), I'm not convinced the juice is worth the squeeze. You'd have to bring in a master of supply chain management to pull it off in a way that adds value to the customer without lead times getting crazy or sku bloat crushing margin.
Handelbars and suspension springs are cheap and frankly, this is the idea of the dealer. They get you totally dialed. This is where they are supposed to make their margin. The machine is ridable out of the crate, but its dialed with a good shop employee/owner working their magic for your needs and body geometry.
Its a bit old school, but it works really well in my experience and again, its super impressive how much technology you are buying for $10K when you walk out of a shop with a new dirt bike.
Good podcast Jeff and Spomer, something a little different aka why we are on vital.
Jeff- you start a thread on bike companies closing, but got a stealth mode bike component company coming…playing the game! In a good way. Can’t wait to see what you got cooking.
If your digging into these financials, keep us update as you go as I find this stuff fascinating.
….on my way to buy Pierer stock cus our boi Jeff is smart n stuff
Perrier has been criminally unvalued since the La Croix fad of 2018. Primed for a big rebound.
Look who's talking about dampening now!
Holy schlamoly. If Felt sold 24k bikes and no one has seen a Felt in the wild…
How many Stumpjumpers have been sold?? The number has to be inconceivably high.
24k bikes sold with only 47% sold in NA, this explains why no one are seeing them.
Giant sold 6.6 million bikes worldwide in 2017 just to give you an idea.
Or, in the matter of commerce.....
Hey biz thread subscribers, I met with Jeff about a month ago for an Inside Line to discuss the current state of things. It was a rad discussion. The podcast and its copy are below. Enjoy! I know I did.
Thanks to Maxxis Tires | FOX | Jenson USA for supporting The Inside Line
Today we're joined by Jeff Brines, a long-time mountain biker, Litter Mag and Vital MTB fan. He's also educated and versed in finance. He kicked off a forum thread on Vital MTB that asked "Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?" At a year old, the thread has over 100,000 views with nearly 800 replies as news about our industry has broken. We discuss the past and current state of the bicycle industry through his analysis and tools and see if we can figure out where we're headed.
Thank you Vital listeners!
THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE.
Podcast Contents
0:00 - Intro, who is Jeff and what are we discussing?
6:11 - Why start a Vital MTB forum post about bike companies shutting down?
11:07 - Why did the *money people* think MTB would make them rich during Covid?
17:30 - Is it just greed and ego?
19:55 - Why did bikes stop selling?
23:49 - Why don't brands save money for slow times?
27:54 - Most of the bike industry is privately held
32:52 - Companies that went under, does the investment money just disappear?
38:05 - Original owners buying a company back, Family Office and Private Equity
46:25 - Private equity and how it works
51:54 - Is going bankrupt expected with venture capital investors?
53:51 - The lunacy of VanMoof being worth $500 million
1:04:23 - What does the bike industry future look like?
1:12:41 - Is there any incentive to get into the bike industry now?
1:15:41 - Is there an ideal company size?
1:17:48 - Will the business world repeat the same mistakes 10 years from now?
1:21:31 - Tools to learn about the bike industry
1:26:10 - Vital audience survey
Check out Jeff's slideshow presentation here (Google Slides)
Vital MTB Audience Surveys (scroll to bottom of page)
https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/
Thx a ton for having me. Post any questions or call outs here (which is totally fair) and I'll respond. Also, apologies for all the rambling. I was...nervous. 😬
Thanks for putting out the podcast! I'm excited to give it a listen bit by bit over the next few days.
Cool timing, too, because I just listened to a podcast yesterday that talks (briefly) about the financial side of a smaller bike company so that got me super curious about the industry as a whole ("hole?") and how financial folk think about at this stuff.
On the Bikes or Death podcast, Tim Krueger - CEO of Esker Cycles and former Product Manager at Salsa Cycles - talked about a million things including Esker's financial situation after the last 5 years of bike industry boom and bust.
In short: they're doing well and can easily point to the reasons why.
That entire Bikes or Death podcast episode was really good, though. I definitely think it's worth the listen!
Sounds like I've got some listening to do soon...
Its a little bit comical to see the results of the Gas Gas buy a dirt bike get a free e bike promotion. That has the same feeling as the Kona buy one get one deal. When you are giving something away you are solely trying to get it out of inventory and cut your losses before sending it to the dump or a mass auction for pennies on the dollar.
Also funny how when you make totally junk e bikes no one takes them seriously.
That's actually super interesting, I hadn't seen that yet. On the surface it does feel like Kona, but really they could be creating a new customer in a parallel market segment. Tradition motorsport customers could be E-curious but need a nudge to try it out. Kona was all about burning inventory, but Gas Gas could be part blowing out inventory and part investment in future market share.
More likely the sinking-rubber-raft than trying out the market. Plenty of MX shops already have had e-bike offerings alongside their respective motorcycle brands.
In my area MX shops started selling eMTBs during Covid and I guess it was working out at some level considering the very high demand.
All my local MX shops selling ebikes are now stuck with them, some of the GasGas bikes are up to 60% off still not moving that much and the new MXC/ECC models are already on sale.
Dealers are in for some fun times trying to move that GasGas/Husqvarna inventory.
It would seem to make more sense to just offer a bit more customization on KTM's alone. Even just different color plastics, bar heights, or swapping spring rates to match the rider's weight or preference.
Ha. I also missed this. The irony is e-bikes are absolutely crushing PMG (parent). They contributed negative (~EUR100M)EBITDA last reporting period (if memory serves) while their motorcycle units were actually net positive on an EBITDA basis.
I have no idea what they'll do with the e-bike unit, but they either need to completely retool on the product management front (I'm available - lol), divest in the unit or flat liquidate and shut it down. Selling subpar bikes into a highly discerning market isn't going to work, clearly.
I can't help but comment on this one because there are a lot of ways to make the dirt bike buying experience better, but the fact is when we go buy a dirt bike for ~$10K we are getting a lot of product for the money. The business needs to be hyper efficient or they lose their already thin margin. This is exactly my argument as to why GasGas/Husky is a net headwind. Its adding to an already complicated supply chain with little outside of brand equity to show for it.
If a company were to add customization, which others have tried (Beta), I'm not convinced the juice is worth the squeeze. You'd have to bring in a master of supply chain management to pull it off in a way that adds value to the customer without lead times getting crazy or sku bloat crushing margin.
Handelbars and suspension springs are cheap and frankly, this is the idea of the dealer. They get you totally dialed. This is where they are supposed to make their margin. The machine is ridable out of the crate, but its dialed with a good shop employee/owner working their magic for your needs and body geometry.
Its a bit old school, but it works really well in my experience and again, its super impressive how much technology you are buying for $10K when you walk out of a shop with a new dirt bike.
Good podcast Jeff and Spomer, something a little different aka why we are on vital.
Jeff- you start a thread on bike companies closing, but got a stealth mode bike component company coming…playing the game! In a good way. Can’t wait to see what you got cooking.
If your digging into these financials, keep us update as you go as I find this stuff fascinating.
Post a reply to: Will more companies be shutting down in the next 12-24 months?