I believe it. Given the complexity of the supply chain, labor & shipping restrictions, etc that's very believable. I was listening to a podcast last week, it sounded like some companies are increasing their order sizes in response to the long lead times, which would in turn serve to further increase the lead times.
Welp, here's an interesting tweet from a bike industry vet.
[img]https://p.vitalmtb.com/photos/forums/2021/05/04/10770/s1200_image_2021_05_04T15_37_04_085Z.jpg[/img]
Welp, here's an interesting tweet from a bike industry vet.
I was joking about doing retreads last week with old dhf's.... Haha..hahahaha...ha?
I had heard from my local shop that Maxxis are fairly well stocked, though I believe its down to how many SKUs they have. You may be able to get a DHR, but it may not be the one you want.
The big hold up as far as I understand is drivetrain components. I know this has been discussed a lot, but I took the warnings last year about potential shortages semi-seriously and ordered new chains, brake pads, and other consumables for the bike to hold me over this year. My friend tried to order a 12 speed chain two months ago and was told he might get it by mid-summer. From what I understand some popular stuff (like GX/X01 and Force/Rival SRAM cassettes, chains, and derailleurs) are on backorder to 2022 already in Canada.
I even placed an order on Rival eTap the morning it was officially released, and I was told I *might* get everything by December. Lol. At least it was an upgrade and not a part of a new build!
I had heard from my local shop that Maxxis are fairly well stocked, though I believe its down to how many SKUs they have. You may...
I had heard from my local shop that Maxxis are fairly well stocked, though I believe its down to how many SKUs they have. You may be able to get a DHR, but it may not be the one you want.
The big hold up as far as I understand is drivetrain components. I know this has been discussed a lot, but I took the warnings last year about potential shortages semi-seriously and ordered new chains, brake pads, and other consumables for the bike to hold me over this year. My friend tried to order a 12 speed chain two months ago and was told he might get it by mid-summer. From what I understand some popular stuff (like GX/X01 and Force/Rival SRAM cassettes, chains, and derailleurs) are on backorder to 2022 already in Canada.
I even placed an order on Rival eTap the morning it was officially released, and I was told I *might* get everything by December. Lol. At least it was an upgrade and not a part of a new build!
I ordered a Rootdown frame from Chromag in October and started sorting out parts then. In December I started seeing delivery dates pass by so I panic ordered from our distributor's knowing we could sell the extra parts. Out of three drivetrains, three sets of brakes and three wheeset options, I have a donated Microshift 9 speed warranty drivetrain, a pair of borrowed XTR brakes from a friend and one front XT hub.
Frame is expected end of this month so I guess there's still time......
I've somehow managed to buy two brand new norcos, one in June 2020 and now last week. No clue how but after seeing some of the stock shortages going on, if you are remotely considering buying something and it is in stock, do it!
I had heard from my local shop that Maxxis are fairly well stocked, though I believe its down to how many SKUs they have. You may...
I had heard from my local shop that Maxxis are fairly well stocked, though I believe its down to how many SKUs they have. You may be able to get a DHR, but it may not be the one you want.
The big hold up as far as I understand is drivetrain components. I know this has been discussed a lot, but I took the warnings last year about potential shortages semi-seriously and ordered new chains, brake pads, and other consumables for the bike to hold me over this year. My friend tried to order a 12 speed chain two months ago and was told he might get it by mid-summer. From what I understand some popular stuff (like GX/X01 and Force/Rival SRAM cassettes, chains, and derailleurs) are on backorder to 2022 already in Canada.
I even placed an order on Rival eTap the morning it was officially released, and I was told I *might* get everything by December. Lol. At least it was an upgrade and not a part of a new build!
I talked to Maxxis a week ago and they don't have much stock. They have DHRs and others getting on the boat in a month but the person at Maxxis was unsure how many of those tires had been allocated to OEM partners... The word was buy tires for your summer supply now.
I talked to Maxxis a week ago and they don't have much stock. They have DHRs and others getting on the boat in a month but...
I talked to Maxxis a week ago and they don't have much stock. They have DHRs and others getting on the boat in a month but the person at Maxxis was unsure how many of those tires had been allocated to OEM partners... The word was buy tires for your summer supply now.
That is rough. At least DHRs are a good tire for many?
I should have specified that my knowledge of tire inventory was based on a Canadian distributor's stockpile since that is where my LBS is.
The moral of the story is: buying today for next year is better than buying tomorrow for 2023 😐
I've somehow managed to buy two brand new norcos, one in June 2020 and now last week. No clue how but after seeing some of the...
I've somehow managed to buy two brand new norcos, one in June 2020 and now last week. No clue how but after seeing some of the stock shortages going on, if you are remotely considering buying something and it is in stock, do it!
Don't do that ! Don't feed my need to buy things for the thrill of it!
What if some of this is fake hysteria to drive sales, feed the beast, keep the fire on, etc etc etc? Not saying supply/demand issues are not real, but, I feel like one persons 250 lead time becomes 300, then 400, etc....just in rumor mill.
Also, the forecasting/demand planning people in manufacturing are using the last 12 months as the barometer when we have to expect demand to cool down sooner than later?
What if some of this is fake hysteria to drive sales, feed the beast, keep the fire on, etc etc etc? Not saying supply/demand issues are...
What if some of this is fake hysteria to drive sales, feed the beast, keep the fire on, etc etc etc? Not saying supply/demand issues are not real, but, I feel like one persons 250 lead time becomes 300, then 400, etc....just in rumor mill.
Also, the forecasting/demand planning people in manufacturing are using the last 12 months as the barometer when we have to expect demand to cool down sooner than later?
What if some of this is fake hysteria to drive sales, feed the beast, keep the fire on, etc etc etc? Not saying supply/demand issues are...
What if some of this is fake hysteria to drive sales, feed the beast, keep the fire on, etc etc etc? Not saying supply/demand issues are not real, but, I feel like one persons 250 lead time becomes 300, then 400, etc....just in rumor mill.
Also, the forecasting/demand planning people in manufacturing are using the last 12 months as the barometer when we have to expect demand to cool down sooner than later?
I don't know if i'd call it fake hysteria, but I would agree some of it is panic buying. I've seen a report (I think it was on BRAIN) that some companies are putting out multiple orders to different vendors and just waiting to see who delivers first. so I think there is some artificial inflation to the lead times, but I don't think that accounts for the majority of the increase.
I can assure you it's not fake. I know the brand/component these guys are talking about. It went from 300 days last fall to 450 days in December, then 620 days in Jan/Feb. I'm doing my forecasts for our purchasing department so that they can order product to arrive in late 2023 right now (30 months from now).
Forecasting (which is essentially trying to predict the future), is incredibly difficult under the best circumstances. In the present situation, there's almost zero detail on what the product will look like 2+ years from now other than the vaguest of details ("so-and-so will have a new dropper at that price point, and we presume it will be lighter and/or have shorter insertion and more travel"), so it's like throwing darts... blindfolded... at a moving target... and you're drunk.
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if...
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
There is a holdup at both, but it's mainly the manufacturing of components that is an issue. The companies want more product but the manufacturer's can't expand quickly enough (building bigger facilities would take take years) and they don't want to overproduce stock and have a glut of inventory left over.
I don't think it's a scam or false advertising because that would only work for short-term gains and could reasonably blowup in the long term. Plus, if it were fake then I don't think brands would be holding off on bike launches as that's what makes them money. We have also seen many bikes launch with limited spec options, and many brands have decided not to stock a certain frame/group combo so that the better selling options can exist. The most noticeable one to me has been cyclocross bikes - every brand has only one or two build kits this year because they would rather put their eTap/GRX components on a better selling category in gravel.
And for sure there are parts out there for replacements, but as many have said you have to ship around with new/different brands. That's fine for an individual, but it would not work well for a business that's trying to source 10,000+ kits with consistent spec at a consistent price.
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if...
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
At the factories. Demand is exceedingly high and many factories don't have the production capacity or access to the raw materials to meet the huge increases being requested by their customers. Shipping is also slow at the moment, but in general that's only adding a couple weeks to delivery (and as you've heard correctly, many brands are air shipping as much as they can afford).
The best solution would be for the factories in Asia to invest in expanding current production lines or opening new facilities, but almost all seem reluctant to do so for fear that this spike in demand will disappear before they can recoup their investments. It's a hell of a Catch-22.
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if...
So where is the holdup? Is it manufacturing or shipping? I've already heard of bikes inventory being flown rather than using ocean freight.
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
At the factories. Demand is exceedingly high and many factories don't have the production capacity or access to the raw materials to meet the huge increases...
At the factories. Demand is exceedingly high and many factories don't have the production capacity or access to the raw materials to meet the huge increases being requested by their customers. Shipping is also slow at the moment, but in general that's only adding a couple weeks to delivery (and as you've heard correctly, many brands are air shipping as much as they can afford).
The best solution would be for the factories in Asia to invest in expanding current production lines or opening new facilities, but almost all seem reluctant to do so for fear that this spike in demand will disappear before they can recoup their investments. It's a hell of a Catch-22.
JP;
I understand the Catch-22 aspect of this, but I'm not currently convinced the shortage extends past the front line - i.e. buyers like you, online retailers, and brick and mortar shops. I am suspicious that there's blood in the water and EVERY shark has shown up. So let's say that distributor X gets 500 GX chains. The current distributor practices doesn't allow for reserving product (even for a week) so shops immediately snap up the chains before they disappear. Now with UPS and FedEx having a field day, shops do everything they can to hit the free ship targets, so even though they want 10 chains for inventory, they fill up with enough other crap to hit the magic number. Now the shops lucky enough to be at the computer when the chains showed up have some inventory, and some extra, because everyone is telling them bike boom. This cycle repeats over and over again. At some time, smaller shops throw in the towel on the free-shipping target, as inventory value builds and exceeds what's going out the door. So, then, shipping costs build up instead and erode margins.
In addition to that, the big online retailers order hundreds (let's assume on some sort of leverage, i.e. debt). Some of these retailers are nice enough to list their actual inventory. So - for example - I can't get a GX rear derailleur anywhere in the traditional supply chain, but retailer X has 200 of them. Good for them I suppose, but now I need to direct my customers to buy the part retail and bring it in for installation, so further cutting shop income.
I had a conversation yesterday with a fishing shop owner. He told me that a few years ago when the big online / retail stores got into swing they would snap up inventory in seconds when it appeared at distribution; smaller shops weren't getting anything unless they sat red-eyed at their computers with fingers hovering over the "buy" button. The manufacturers intervened and now allow controlled area distribution.
So right now, the bike boom may just be self-created with the feeding frenzy being a product of lousy buying policies being pushed at LBS along with online retailers looking to cash in on the gold rush. I share the manufacturer's concern that investing in additional capacity might not be a good idea, but in addition to that I fear that the online marketplace may become flush with businesses dumping inventory at or below wholesale values to save themselves from bankruptcy (or as part of it.)
I could be totally off base, but the historical outcomes of bubbles and gold rushes are out there to compare to.
The big hold up as far as I understand is drivetrain components. I know this has been discussed a lot, but I took the warnings last year about potential shortages semi-seriously and ordered new chains, brake pads, and other consumables for the bike to hold me over this year. My friend tried to order a 12 speed chain two months ago and was told he might get it by mid-summer. From what I understand some popular stuff (like GX/X01 and Force/Rival SRAM cassettes, chains, and derailleurs) are on backorder to 2022 already in Canada.
I even placed an order on Rival eTap the morning it was officially released, and I was told I *might* get everything by December. Lol. At least it was an upgrade and not a part of a new build!
Frame is expected end of this month so I guess there's still time......
I should have specified that my knowledge of tire inventory was based on a Canadian distributor's stockpile since that is where my LBS is.
The moral of the story is: buying today for next year is better than buying tomorrow for 2023 😐
Also, the forecasting/demand planning people in manufacturing are using the last 12 months as the barometer when we have to expect demand to cool down sooner than later?
Marketing have to keep the pennies rolling in.
Forecasting (which is essentially trying to predict the future), is incredibly difficult under the best circumstances. In the present situation, there's almost zero detail on what the product will look like 2+ years from now other than the vaguest of details ("so-and-so will have a new dropper at that price point, and we presume it will be lighter and/or have shorter insertion and more travel"), so it's like throwing darts... blindfolded... at a moving target... and you're drunk.
JP
I'm wondering if the lack of inventory will lead to an implosion rather than a boom, as the new riders discover (1) they can't fix what they've got and (2) partying at the clubs is way easier. That could lead to dumping of all the inventory that arrives late, when all the buyers have moved on to other hobbies....
I don't think it's a scam or false advertising because that would only work for short-term gains and could reasonably blowup in the long term. Plus, if it were fake then I don't think brands would be holding off on bike launches as that's what makes them money. We have also seen many bikes launch with limited spec options, and many brands have decided not to stock a certain frame/group combo so that the better selling options can exist. The most noticeable one to me has been cyclocross bikes - every brand has only one or two build kits this year because they would rather put their eTap/GRX components on a better selling category in gravel.
And for sure there are parts out there for replacements, but as many have said you have to ship around with new/different brands. That's fine for an individual, but it would not work well for a business that's trying to source 10,000+ kits with consistent spec at a consistent price.
The best solution would be for the factories in Asia to invest in expanding current production lines or opening new facilities, but almost all seem reluctant to do so for fear that this spike in demand will disappear before they can recoup their investments. It's a hell of a Catch-22.
JP;
In addition to that, the big online retailers order hundreds (let's assume on some sort of leverage, i.e. debt). Some of these retailers are nice enough to list their actual inventory. So - for example - I can't get a GX rear derailleur anywhere in the traditional supply chain, but retailer X has 200 of them. Good for them I suppose, but now I need to direct my customers to buy the part retail and bring it in for installation, so further cutting shop income.
I had a conversation yesterday with a fishing shop owner. He told me that a few years ago when the big online / retail stores got into swing they would snap up inventory in seconds when it appeared at distribution; smaller shops weren't getting anything unless they sat red-eyed at their computers with fingers hovering over the "buy" button. The manufacturers intervened and now allow controlled area distribution.
So right now, the bike boom may just be self-created with the feeding frenzy being a product of lousy buying policies being pushed at LBS along with online retailers looking to cash in on the gold rush. I share the manufacturer's concern that investing in additional capacity might not be a good idea, but in addition to that I fear that the online marketplace may become flush with businesses dumping inventory at or below wholesale values to save themselves from bankruptcy (or as part of it.)
I could be totally off base, but the historical outcomes of bubbles and gold rushes are out there to compare to.
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